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Opinion

On market shocks

On market shocks
July 1, 2015
On market shocks

Sustained falls in the euro will also keep the downward pressure on reported figures for multinationals such as Photo-Me International (PHTM), which saw its 2015 results restrained by the strength of the pound against the euro deposited in its photobooths, as we report this week. The euro did recover its losses against the US dollar, as market-watchers predicted a 'yes' vote from the Greek population in the imminent referendum, which is increasingly being presented as a vote to stay in the single currency, or return to the drachma. But with fresh proposals oscillating between Greece and its creditors, there are surely further twists ahead.

Meanwhile, the tragic attack on holidaymakers in Tunisia, most of them British, demonstrated that the beaches of northern Africa are no refuge from the murderous influence of the self-styled Islamic State. As markets opened, shares in Tui (TUI) and Thomas Cook (TCG) saw their biggest falls of the year, demonstrating the fragility of the a tour operator's business model to disruptions to the domestic economy and security at travel destinations.

A Muslim state bordering Libya, Tunisia seems like a predictable target for a terror attack. But the track record here was misleading. The 2014 Global Terrorism Index, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace had Tunisia at 46th place for the impact of terrorism during the year, well below the United Kingdom at 27th, the US at 30th, and even - you guessed it - Greece, at 29th.

Nor have tourism businesses felt the worst of it until now. According to figures from consultancy Mercer's Terrorism Tracker, the most targeted sector is retail, including public marketplaces (33 per cent), transport (18 per cent), followed by energy and infrastructure. Tourism companies take 5 per cent of the hit.

Unsurprisingly, political and security risk evaluation is big business for multi-national companies keen to weigh up the merits of expansion. But trying to predict the next hit, whether for management or the retail investor constructing a global portfolio, is extremely difficult given the 'sole agent' nature of recent terrorist attacks.

A telling stat does sit in the same 2014 IEP report though. Tunisia comes out top of a different list - it is estimated to have 3,000 of its citizens fighting in Syria, 500 more than regional power Saudi Arabia, and approaching 1,000 more than Syria's neighbouring Jordan. On this reading, a homegrown threat is easier, with hindsight, to understand.

Such is the unseemly balance of global markets that greater instability in the Middle East does have beneficiaries, in UK defence suppliers. This week, demand from the region’s rattled governments for electronic warfare operational support products boosted Cohort (CHRT).

Both of this week's bad new stories demonstrate the UK is not insulated from global events. Our stock market suffers from a weak and volatile Europe, and parts of our Muslim community are increasingly attracted by militant groups. In the days following the Tunisia attack, security services in London carried out a major anti-terror training exercise on the streets of the capital.

In terms of predicting the impact of a similar attack on our market, we can look back to the last major terror attack on 7 July 2005. The FTSE immediately tanked 3.5 per cent, the largest fall since the start of the war in Iraq, leading the London Stock Exchange to switch off electronic trading systems. But the market later recovered to a full-day drop of just 1.4 per cent. Stocks made up the lost ground the very next day, as the country got back on its feet. If only the human cost of these events was as easily recoverable.