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Don't lose sleep over Greece

Don't lose sleep over Greece
July 3, 2015
Don't lose sleep over Greece

It’s also because we remain focused on long-term investment opportunities rather than farcical squabbling on Europe’s periphery – whatever happens in Greece, and however painful it is for its unfortunate citizens, it shouldn’t prove much more than a bump in the road for the rest of us. Of course, watching the heavy tumble markets have taken over the last few weeks as a result of the Greek impasse might suggest we should have been a bit more worried. Since peaking in late April the FTSE 100 has shed 7 per cent of its value, and its been a similar story across European bourses; the Eurostoxx 50, the eurozone's leading blue chip index, has fallen 8 per cent.

Yet much of the nervousness comes simply from uncertainty – and with the Greek people still to vote in a referendum which many believe essentially represents a plebiscite on its continued membership of the eurozone, markets are likely to remain volatile. But UK indices are not, as our latest Market Tactics report shows on page 26, worryingly expensive and will probably deliver modest returns in the years ahead. European indices are similarly inexpensive, which explains why the fund managers we surveyed this week on page 43 are unruffled – further soothed, perhaps, by the tailwind of QE that should blow away any lingering Greek worries in the months ahead.

A bigger worry, admittedly, is the risk of contagion, with the Hellenic hullabaloo raising the spectre of other nations eyeing the EU exit should Greece leave the bloc. The possibility of a Brexit, for one, has reared its head again over the last few weeks as the prime minister David Cameron thrust himself into the melee to begin a concerted push for treaty renegotiation. Looking at the unwillingness of eurozone politicians to negotiate with Greece he may meet with some resistance. Meanwhile the sight of belligerent European politicians strangling a struggling nation - and in so doing escalating an economic crisis into a human tragedy - will hardly win many votes for continued membership of the EU when we hold our own referendum in two years’ time.

Again, should we in the UK eventually choose to plough our own furrow, it will not prove disastrous for the UK’s long-term investors, whatever the inevitable panic-stricken commentary may suggest. In fact, we’ll welcome any weakness with open arms – because it will inevitably offer up plenty of value opportunities for canny - and patient - stockpickers.

To hear John Hughman and guests discussing Greece and more in this week's free IC Companies & Markets podcast, click here.