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Opinion

Next week's economics: 24-28 Aug

Next week's economics: 24-28 Aug
August 21, 2015
Next week's economics: 24-28 Aug

We could see some positive news from Japan, where industrial production might have risen in July, although this would still leave it below the first-quarter's levels. However, this news might be tempered by US durable goods orders, which might have fallen in July, albeit after a good rise in June.

In the eurozone, business surveys by the National Bank of Belgium and Germany's Ifo institute will tell us whether manufacturers are benefiting from lower commodity prices or hurting from the cause of those lower prices - the slowdown in China.

A clearer and happier picture might emerge from the consumer sectors, which are doing okay in both the US and UK.

In the US, the Conference Board might report a rise in consumer confidence. Consistent with this, we should see the housing market do well: sales of new houses could be some 20 per cent up year on year, while the S&P/Case-Shiller index should show annual house price inflation of around 5 per cent.

In the UK, the CBI is likely to report that retail sales were strong in early August while the GfK group might report a pick-up in consumer confidence. And we might also see signs of stronger house price inflation. The Nationwide Building Society could report that prices have risen by over 4 per cent in the last six months alone.

However, the UK economy is dangerously reliant upon the consumer. Thursday's second estimate of second-quarter GDP could show that the biggest contributor to growth then was consumer spending - although net exports also made a contribution. It's possible that the contribution from business investment was very small. Was this the merely temporary effect of political uncertainty causing companies to delay spending? Or is it a sign of more worrying constraints on investment, such as weak overseas demand and a lack of monetisable projects?

Another figure to watch will be Thursday's eurozone monetary statistics. Some good news in this should be that bank lending is now picking up, albeit more to households than companies. What will be odd, though, is that overnight deposits are rising strongly - up 12 per cent year on year - while longer-term deposits are falling. This could be a positive sign, that people are increasing their liquid assets as preparation to spend more. Or it could tell us that depositors still don't trust banks enough to want to tie up their money with them.