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Commercial property: More but less

Asset inflation is set to slow but, along with rising rental income, the outlook is set fair
December 18, 2015

After significant growth in property values and rental income in 2015, expect more of the same in 2016, but less.

Property values and rental income both grew strongly in 2015, as the real-estate sector continued to recover some of the significant ground lost in the wake of the financial crash. And a quick glance would suggest the coming year will bring further advances.

However, it is an axiomatic function of market watchers to question when the next downturn in property values will take place. Given that the last clear rout was prompted by irresponsibility in the banking sector, it's not that easy to find a peg on which to hang the next change in sentiment, given that banks now operate in a much tougher regulatory regime that rules out profligate lending on speculative developments. That the real estate market will turn down at some point goes without saying. Its nature and timing, however, are difficult to predict and, having been woefully ill prepared for the traumatic events triggered by the Northern Rock bailout, there is a temptation among market watchers to be really prepared for the next downturn, and forecasts predicting the timing of another turn appear with regularity.

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