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McColl's is still under the squeeze from price deflation

The company's convenience chains are still suffering at the hands of widespread price deflation
March 4, 2016

Newsagent and convenience chain McColl 's (MCLS) reported results in line with market expectations, with like-for-like sales down 1.9 per cent at the hands of industry-wide price deflation and lower volumes. This figure would have been worse but for an improvement in underlying sales in the final quarter. And at the premium convenience and food and wine stores, like-for-like sales were only down 0.6 per cent for the year. Statutory profit soared as exceptional costs fell to just £625,000 last year, down from £6.6m in 2014.

IC TIP: Hold at 144p

Unfortunately, the overall downward trend in the growth rate has continued into the new financial year. Like-for-like sales fell 1.8 per cent during the first 13 weeks of 2016, although total revenue rose thanks to acquisitions and new openings, with the company on target to reach 1,000 stores by the end of 2016.

Things could have been worse, though. McColl's share price has fallen by a quarter since its IPO, but analysts at Numis point out the food retail index fell 37 per cent over the same period. The broker expects pre-tax profit of £20.5m for the 2016 financial year, giving EPS of 15.6p, compared with £21.7m and 16.5p in FY2015.

MCCOLL'S RETAIL (MCLS)
ORD PRICE:144pMARKET VALUE:£150m
TOUCH:143.5-145p12-MONTH HIGH:180pLOW: 130p
DIVIDEND YIELD:7.1%PE RATIO:9
NET ASSET VALUE:120p*NET DEBT:25%

Year to 29 NovTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2011**80510.5nana
2012**84513.3nana
20138694.46.9nil
201492212.610.28.5
201593221.115.410.2
% change+1+67+51+20

Ex-div: 28 Apr

Payment: 31 May

*Includes intangible assets of £146m, or 139p a share

**Pre-IPO figures