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Resilient Vp has potential

We think equipment hire business Vp offers a relatively low-risk buy call on a cyclical recovery in UK support services.
April 7, 2016

Share price performance among rental companies has been uninspiring over the past year. Valuations for small caps such as Speedy Hire (SDY) and HSS Hire (HSS) have slumped alarmingly, and even FTSE 350 constituent Ashtead (AHT) hasn't escaped the general markdown. However, the share price of Vp (VP.) has flatlined over the past 12-months. That implies resilience in the face of deteriorating markets, which is also borne out by the share price beta of just 0.1 (see table), and a narrow trading band through much of the year. However, Vp's shares aren't just a safety play - we also view them as a potentially lucrative recovery buy.

IC TIP: Buy at 685p
Tip style
Value
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Resilient business mix
  • Intensifying focus on cost controls
  • High fixed-cost business model
  • Relative rating at a low point
Bear points
  • Outlook on UK support services still mixed
  • Effects of oil price slump

Vp's contract mix does, indeed, include defensive strands through exposure to the UK water industry's capital spending and railways maintenance work. But that doesn't necessarily mean Vp's shares will underperform once investors regain their appetite for risk taking. That's because Vp, like all equipment-rental operators, has lots of operational gearing - as demand for its equipment rises and revenues respond, its costs stay little changed.

 

 

Vp is also likely to be a beneficiary of end-market recovery in the UK due to its efficient operating structure and proactive management. Its record of never cutting a dividend is an obvious draw for investors. However, there is also an implied upside of around one-third from the current share price of 685p if Vp's rating relative to its peer group - as measured by the price-earnings ratio on their shares - recovers to its historic average. True, this rating discount is mostly in relation to Vp's overseas peers, so the widening has been predominantly linked to the relative decline of the UK's support services sector.

The group's focus on specialist segments of the equipment hire market has seen consistent improvement in profit margins and return on capital. The corporate structure comprises six operating divisions: UK Forks, Groundforce, Airpac Bukom Oilfield Services, Hire Station, Torrent Trackside and TPA. The group’s operations stretch across the UK, Ireland and into mainland Europe, and its oil and gas business operates internationally from a network of hubs across the globe. Predictably, this segment of the business has caused some consternation due to the fall-away in capital spending across the oil and gas industry. The effects of the industry-wide retrenchment were reflected in Vp's first-half figures, when Airpac Bukom reported a 25 per cent contraction in revenue, although a focus on cost controls meant that profit margins held up reasonably well.

The group continues to see encouraging remits from the construction and housebuilding industries. This was reflected in the performance of Hire Station in the first half, where revenue and profit were up 9 per cent and 27 per cent respectively. All told, the group claims a highly creditable 16.1 per cent return on equity at the half-year mark, against 14.9 per cent in the previous first half.

VP (VP.)
ORD PRICE:685pMARKET VALUE:£275m
TOUCH:660p-685p12-MONTH HIGH:816pLOW: 640p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.8%PE RATIO:11
NET ASSET VALUE:284pNET DEBT:72%

Year to 31 MarTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)*Earnings per share (p)*Dividend per share (p)
201316717.435.512.3
2014 18320.142.014.0
2015 20626.854.516.5
2016 * 21528.458.217.6
2017 * 22830.662.719.0
% change+6+8+8+8

Normal market size: 500

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.1

*Equity Development forecasts: all profits and EPS figures before amortisation