Join our community of smart investors

Why rivals' capacity expansion could put pressure on Ryanair

Capacity is growing more than in previous years among the airline's competitors as their fuel hedges unwind
May 23, 2016

Even excluding the near-€400m (£310m) disposal of its Aer Lingus shareholding, pre-tax profits rose more than two-thirds as Ryanair (RYA) became the first airline to clock 100m international passengers in a calendar year. The number of bums on seats rose by nearly a fifth to 106.4m, pushing load factors up to 93 per cent. Fares were on average €46.67, down 1 per cent, which along with the carrier's 'Always Getting Better' customer service programme seems to be enticing flyers.

IC TIP: Hold at 13.37€

But while the peak summer season has, on average, 2 per cent more bookings than this time last year, fares continue to fall. The company said pricing would likely be softer in its first and fourth quarter given neither have included the Easter break, and capacity additions in Europe are higher than in previous years "as hedged competitors enjoy falling oil bills". Bosses expect average fares to fall some 7 per cent this year. This should be mitigated by the fact that its fuel costs are 95 per cent hedged at $62 per barrel in the 2017 financial year - far better than the $90 per barrel hedge in FY2016. Flight cancellations hit 500 in the period thanks to terrorist events in Brussels and strikes on the continent.

Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald expect pre-tax profits of €1.7bn for the year to March 2017, leading to adjusted EPS of 115.8¢, compared with €1.72bn and 115.6¢ in FY2015.

RYANAIR (RYA)
ORD PRICE:1,337¢MARKET VALUE:€17bn
TOUCH:1,336-1,338¢12-MONTH HIGH:1,559¢LOW: 1,115¢
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:15
NET ASSET VALUE:283¢NET CASH:€312m

Year to 31 MarTurnover (€bn)Pre-tax profit (€bn)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
20124.390.6338.0nil
20134.880.6539.5nil
20145.040.5937.0nil
20155.650.9862.6nil
20166.541.72116nil*
% change+16+75+86-

Ex-div: na

Payment: na

*Excludes €398m cash return paid in November 2015 £1=€1.29