The CBI's survey of retailers on 27 July will tell us something about post-Brexit consumer spending. With early reports suggesting a fall in consumer confidence, we might see a dip in retail sales.
We'll also see what impact Brexit is having on the rest of Europe. Last month, Germany's Ifo survey and the National Bank of Belgium's business climate indicator showed good rises. These, however, might be reversed next week.
Things might look better in the US, though. Next week should bring news of rises in durable goods orders, sales of new houses and house prices. We might also see a rise in consumer confidence, perhaps to close to a post-crisis high. And Friday's first estimate of second-quarter GDP should show a pick-up in growth, to around 2.5 per cent at an annualised rate after 1.1 per cent growth in Q1.
That won't be matched in the euro area, though. GDP growth there probably slowed down in Q2, perhaps growing by 0.3 per cent after a 0.6 per cent expansion in Q1. Partly because of this, Friday's figures might also show that unemployment was flat in June, at 10.1 per cent of the workforce.
The UK economy, by contrast, approached Brexit in good shape. If the ONS's first estimate of GDP corroborates NIESR's estimate, it'll show growth of 0.6 per cent in the quarter - albeit fuelled very much by consumer spending. We shouldn't, however, set much store by this simply because the figures are subject to significant revision.
Bank of England figures on Friday might show that borrowing fell in the run-up to Brexit. We could see a drop not just in mortgage approvals but also in bank lending to companies.
On Wednesday, we'll get the Fed's interest rate decision. Although the domestic economy might warrant a rise in rates - inflation is edging up and the economy is strengthening - economists expect no change. This is because the Fed is still worried about risks to the financial system. These include not just the fallout from Brexit, but the fragility of China's economy and concerns about some European banks.
