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John Laing's gilt-edged valuation boost

The infrastructure specialist stands to benefit from a step-up in UK government infrastructure spending. That's the theory
August 25, 2016

Most sentiment-based business surveys in the immediate wake of the EU referendum can be taken with a pinch of salt, but others warrant closer inspection. Figures from Barbour ABI, a construction consultancy that supplies industry data for the Office for National Statistics, showed a 20 per cent fall-away in the value of infrastructure construction contracts in July - all the more troubling when you consider that contract activity for the general industrial and commercial office construction segments raced ahead during the month.

IC TIP: Buy at 240.5p

Industry pundits now expect Theresa May's government to announce new spending plans in the autumn. That's good news for infrastructure specialists like John Laing Group (JLG), though the group's latest set of results since its re-admission as a publicly traded entity suggest it has been faring pretty well anyway. An 8.3 per cent increase in net asset vaue since the year-end was ahead of market expectations, driven in part by favourable currency translations and a 40 basis point reduction in the benchmark discount rate to 9.1 per cent.

The portfolio valuation increased 12 per cent from the year-end to £945m (split equally between primary and secondary investments), on a fair value uplift of £128m. While the fall-away in gilt yields should prove beneficial to valuations through lower benchmark rates, the group's pension deficit - though stable at the half-year mark on an accounting basis - could eventually swell.

You would be hard pressed to identify any Brexit-linked effect on the project pipeline, up 19 per cent to £1.78bn, reflecting a commensurate step-up in potential public private partnerships. Midway through August 2016, the group had either been shortlisted, or achieved preferred bidder status, on seven key new projects. Not only that, but John Laing has just acquired a 30 per cent stake in the Nordergründe offshore wind farm in the German North Sea - its first venture in that segment of the energy market.

HSBC gives respective book value and earnings of 290p and 55.7p a share for the December 2016 year-end, against 242p and 26.9p a year earlier.

 

JOHN LAING (JLG)
ORD PRICE:241pMARKET VALUE:£882m
TOUCH:237p-241p12-MONTH HIGH:242pLOW: 184p
DIVIDEND YIELD: †3.0%PE RATIO:5
NET ASSET VALUE:263p*NET DEBT:10%

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2015*64.432.69.31.60
201614110829.11.85
% change+118+232+213+16

Ex-div: 29 Sep

Payment: 28 Oct

*Pro-forma figures as company listed in January 2015

†Includes a special dividend of 2.1p per share paid in May