Join our community of smart investors

Severn Trent awaits Ofwat pricing decision

Ofwat decisions on price and service levels for 2015-20, due to be announced next month, are key to Severn Trent's profit outlook
November 26, 2014

The reported fall in profits at Severn Trent (SVT) isn't meaningful, mainly reflecting a £44m tax rebate in the first half of 2013. Adjusting for that refund and other exceptional items, the water provider's pre-tax profit grew by around 10 per cent to £156m.

IC TIP: Hold at 2,054p

Turnover for the regulated water business grew 2.4 per cent to £793m. Prices rose 1.5 per cent in April, which management stressed was lower than inflation. Water consumption was also slightly higher for those customers with meters, as a result of the dry summer. But underlying operating profits rose just 2.1 per cent to £275m, as costs rose slightly faster than revenues. Meanwhile, pre-tax profits from the unregulated services business rose fourfold to £6.4m, on revenues of £155m.

But what really matters for investors in the coming years is water regulator Ofwat's so-called determination, expected on 12 December. This will set the group's pricing and service requirements for the regulatory period 2015-20, called AMP 6.

Management is responding to the likely shape of AMP 6 with a new organisational structure. This is likely to involve 500 job losses in the second half, saving £400m a year. Management will also have to review Severn Trent's dividend policy, which currently allows for increases of RPI plus 3 per cent. Investors can expect an update early next year.

Broker Whitman Howard expects adjusted EPS of 92.7p this year, up from 88.4p in 2013-14.

SEVERN TRENT (SVT)

ORD PRICE:2,054pMARKET VALUE:£4.9bn
TOUCH:2,052-2,054p12-MONTH HIGH:2,086pLOW: 1,626p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.0%PE RATIO:25
NET ASSET VALUE:438pNET DEBT:£4.4bn

Half-year to 30 SeptTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2013922191145.032.16
201494813845.133.96
% change+3-28-69+6

Ex-div: 4 Dec

Payment: 9 Jan