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Inflation will spread beyond Marmite

Some market commentators have hailed the pound's fall as a positive thing - but it's likely to mean the cost of living increases even if huge rises in the price of your breakfast spread didn't transpire
October 20, 2016

Numis analyst Charles Pick called the row between consumer goods behemoth Unilever (ULVR) and supermarket giant Tesco (TSCO) a "cack-handed handling of matters" and a "PR embarrassment".

The 'matters' he speaks of centre around demands by Unilever that price rises are passed on to customers who buy its products at distributors such as Tesco. But the supermarket chain was unwilling to push through the reportedly demanded 10 per cent rise in the prices of likes of Marmite, Ben & Jerry's ice cream or Dove soap given it is fighting a deflationary price war with its rivals.

Equilibrium was quickly restored, with Unilever apparently "backing down", according to Mr Pick. Although Tesco, for its part, would have been unlikely to want to delist such a major producer of household products given the return to UK like-for-like sales growth chief executive Dave Lewis has fought so hard for.

 

 

But the debate highlights something much broader - the issue of inflation. Figures released this week show inflation jumped to a 22-month high of 1 per cent in September, up from 0.6 per cent in August and above the 0.8 per cent predicted by economists.

The main causes for the inflation rise were increases in the price of clothing, petrol and hotel rooms. The latter was driven mostly by the introduction of the national living wage. But sterling's depreciation against major currencies including the dollar and the euro will soon feed through into the numbers.

Unilever suggested the cost of making its products, many of which either use ingredients or packaging from overseas, has become more expensive. This is because more pounds are needed to buy them now sterling is worth less against the greenback and the single currency. To mitigate this, companies either need to cut costs or raise prices.

Perhaps Unilever backed down because of the recent pressure on sales and volumes.

 

 

But it is likely many more such discussions will be taking place - even if they're far less public than the one-day Marmite storm. Many industries are already debating how to mitigate the impact of sterling's fall on their businesses, especially given the UK's mediocre economic growth prospects.

Inflation would be fine if it was broad based, but it looks as though price rises will be imported while wages stagnate due to a lack of domestic inflationary pressures.

Some expect inflation to rise above the Bank of England's 2 per cent target in 2017, which will have a particularly negative impact on low-income households as tax credits and benefits were frozen in March. This could also impact consumer-facing stocks if their products become less affordable.

Adrian Lowcock, investment director at fund group Architas, said inflation "does look set to return" and consumer goods companies and food producers were "already trying to raise prices".

Analysts at Davy said this "marks the start of a real wage squeeze on UK consumers". The broker said it expected inflation to hit 2 per cent by January.

"This means the modest wage gains currently enjoyed by UK households will soon be almost entirely consumed by higher prices, rather than expanding volumes," the broker said.

It added that in August UK import price inflation was already 6.5 per cent, contributing to a 7.6 per cent rise in input prices while product prices rose 0.8 per cent - the fastest rate since January 2014.

Just like those at breakfast who might be more sparing with their Marmite, investors might want to look at the spread of consumer-facing businesses in their portfolio to see how they are dealing with rising inflation.