The reality is that Donald Trump is the US version of the populist, anti-globalisation vote that's been gaining traction globally. Hillary Clinton is an extreme version of the status quo where, as pointed out by jailbird Lord (Conrad) Black of Crossharbour: "For 32 years one member or other of the Clinton or Bush family has held one or other of the three seated jobs of the administration. The last 20 years have been the worst... in the history of the United States. People are very angry." Wages as a share of GDP have shrunk a lot since 1970.
Some of the electorate look forward to another first: a female President after an African American one. Women in power are rare in many countries, although not so here in Britain where for centuries we have lived with queens and female PMs. Policies are, however, gender neutral and detail on these remains sketchy from both sides. Then add in a sclerotic Capitol Hill; so little gets done.
Looking at the value of the US dollar, this has not changed significantly for the past two years despite the rhetoric and interest rate expectations - which have failed to materialise. The greenback is at its strongest in a decade, due in part to competitive devaluations in other nations. For years all US administrations have banged on about a 'strong dollar policy', but this is just lip service to be quietly buried when necessary. While it may get a tad stronger early next year, sustained and significant gains look unlikely based on historical chart patterns.
US Dollar Index
While the Fed Funds target rate might eventually rally from rock-bottom levels, market interest rates are quite another thing. First and foremost they are global, established by bankers and investors, with one eye on demand and the other on inflation. US yields have been in a secular bear market since 1980 and are unlikely to reverse in a hurry. They are also higher than those available from their G7 sovereign peers, which should help keep a lid on things.
US 10-year Treasury yield
US stock indices, while trading at or close to record highs, have made little headway since July. The Dow Transports is trading 14 per cent below 2014's record high while the Nasdaq has only just regained the stellar peak of 2000. Not a bed of roses but, as yet, certainly not doom and gloom.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Commodity markets, where soy bean exports accounted for one-third of US third-quarter GDP growth, have recovered this year. The Commodity Research Bureau index is trending higher since January, starting two standard deviations below its very long-term mean. It's still close to its lowest levels in the past 20 years and is clearly on the cheap side of the spectrum - plenty of upside potential. Remember, the level of this index is often inversely correlated with the value of the dollar.
CRB Index
