Purchasing managers reports on Monday are expected to confirm the recent flash readings, which showed that growth in the services sector in the euro area has slowed to an 11-month low, while manufacturing growth is at a two-month low. This would be consistent with the economy being very close to stagnation.
Two other figures will corroborate this. On Wednesday, official figures are likely to show that although retail sales rose in October, this only offset September's drop. The general picture will be one of flatlining spending since the spring. And Friday should bring news that German factory orders are lower than they were in July.
This is hitting the UK. Purchasing managers could report a slowdown in both manufacturing and services, in part because of weak external demand. And the Bank of England could report that bank lending to firms has fallen for a second successive month; one reason for this might be that companies are uncertain about overseas sales.
In Wednesday's Autumn Statement, chancellor George Osborne might well cite weakness in the euro area as a reason why government borrowing has overshot its forecast.
We should, however, also see a slowdown which might be more welcome – in the housing market. The Bank of England could report another fall in mortgage approvals on Monday. This would be consistent with figures from the Halifax, showing that house price inflation is now falling.
Meanwhile, US news should be more positive. Monday's ISM index of manufacturing activity could rise to its highest since April 2011. And Friday's employment report should see another 200,000-plus rise in non-farm payrolls. Granted, the pace of net job creation might be less than in the spring – but this would nevertheless be consistent with the overall economy growing well.
On Thursday, we'll see responses to all this from the Bank of England and ECB. The Bank is likely to leave policy unchanged; it has long expected a slowdown at the end of this year. Economists are, however, expecting ECB president Mario Draghi to confirm his plans to buy asset-backed securities, and possibly hint at even more action. He is, however, in danger of earning a reputation for talking a better game than he plays.
