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Poundland losing its currency

As City analysts cut current-year profit forecasts, investors are worried the pound store bubble has burst
June 22, 2015

Shares in Poundland (PLND) have slid since the Competition and Markets Authority launched an investigation into the value retailer's proposed acquisition of rival 99p Stores, which was announced in February. The inquiry has since progressed to a second phase, but a final decision isn't due until October. Until then, chief executive Jim McCarthy says the board is "doing everything it can to co-operate" with the watchdog.

IC TIP: Hold at 300p

In the meantime, the group is celebrating achieving more than £1bn in sales in the year to 29 March, which on a constant currency basis represented growth of nearly 12 per cent. But that growth has decelerated since the year-end. In the first 11 weeks of the 2016 financial year, sales grew 4.1 per cent on a constant currency basis, falling significantly short of last year, when sales were tracking 18 per cent ahead during the first quarter. Mr McCarthy said turnover in that period had been inflated by a late Easter, good weather and the "once in a decade" loom band craze.

Regardless, concern is mounting that demand for pound shops is waning, particularly as supermarkets wage even fiercer price wars in an attempt to win back market share. Poundland's expansion plans suggest its management disagrees with this prognosis. It opened 60 new stores in the UK and Ireland last year, and hopes to add another 40 by the end of the first half. The pilot trial in Spain is also well under way, with half of the targeted '10 stores in two years' already open.

But the market is treading carefully. In April, JPMorgan trimmed pre-tax profit forecasts for the 2016 financial year by 1.6 per cent to £51.9m. A week before the full-year results, analysts at Shore Capital cut its profit forecasts for the same period from £50.5m to £47.5m, reflecting the strength of sterling against the euro, which impacts Poundland's growing European business. To top it off, the group's shares fell more than 6 per cent in early trading on the morning of the results.

Shore Capital still expects EPS of 14.7p for the current financial year, compared with 13.6p in the year to March 2015.

POUNDLAND (PLND)
ORD PRICE:322pMARKET VALUE:£805m
TOUCH:321.9-322p12-MONTH HIGH:421pLOW: 291p
DIVIDEND YIELD:1.4%PE RATIO:28
NET ASSET VALUE:91p*NET CASH:£14m

Year to 29 MarTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2011**0.528.5nana
2012**0.7823.3nana
20130.8826.52.3nil
20141.0021.5-1.8nil
20151.1236.211.44.5
% change+12+68--

Ex-div: 17 Sep

Payment: 2 Oct

*Includes intangible assets of £183m or 73p a share **Pre-IPO figures