Defence analysts would have been wholly unsurprised at the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats from the US for cyber operations aimed at subverting the American election process.
This is because cyberspace has become "an extension of 'real world' conflict theatres"; a view outlined in a recent analysis of defence issues in the coming year by IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review.
A decade ago, the dangers posed to critical infrastructure assets and commercial interests from state-sponsored cyber attacks weren't readily appreciated, but the growth of digitalisation has changed all that.
With the expanding range of connected devices creating more opportunities for exploitation, cyber security, once a peripheral issue, has become a central consideration in strategic defence planning. Consequently, western governments, previously reticent over the extent of their involvement in this form of asymmetrical warfare, are now far more open on the subject.
Another pointer to the rise of cyber security - and its attendant investment opportunities - is provided through proposed increases in national defence budgets. Successive UK governments have been criticised for failing to grasp, or at least act upon, this growing threat to national security. But Westminster now appears to be taking a far more pro-active stance. In November, UK chancellor Philip Hammond outlined a £1.9bn package as part of a new National Cyber Security Strategy designed to boost the UK's defences against the growing online threat. That's a sizable commitment given how stretched the UK's defence budget has become.
The European Commission also recently pledged to strengthen EU cyber security policies as part of a newly announced EU security and defence initiative. The move should necessitate a substantial increase in defence spending from EU member states, many of which were probably on the hook anyway following president-elect Donald Trump's pledge to ensure that all NATO members comply with the minimum defence spending commitment. NATO's official guidelines say member states should spend at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence, but of the 28 countries in the alliance, only five - the US, Greece, the UK, Poland and Estonia - meet the target.
The US remains the largest contributor, in both real and percentage terms. And it certainly has no intention of neglecting its defences against cyber warfare. Pentagon budget documents show that spending on related operations this year will increase by $900m (£734m) over fiscal 2016 to $6.7bn - that represents a 31 per cent increase since 2015.
Even with the sharp rise in commitments, it could be argued that national governments have lagged the private sector in the take-up of defensive measures in this sphere. It's not difficult to appreciate why private corporations have been quick to react. The UK government's Cybersecurity Breaches Survey reveals that 65 per cent of major UK businesses experienced at least one cyber security breach over the past year. Research firm MarketsandMarkets forecasts that the global market in digital security will reach $101bn in value next year, and hit $170bn by 2020. Though defence spending is currently overshadowed by private sector commitments, it is rising at a faster rate - and with good reason.
The analysis by IHS Jane's makes it plain that the rise of state-sponsored or politically-motivated cyber attacks is primarily attributable to its inherent "deniability". The term, long used in intelligence circles, simply refers to covert political activity. For hostile regimes or terrorist organisations, it is both cheaper and simpler to deny responsibility for any damnable actions committed in cyberspace than those in real world situations. The research concludes that the domain is the "ideal locus for such operations", so "deniable warfare in 2017 and beyond will increasingly shift into cyberspace".
