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AZN steps out of Pfizer's shadow

RESULTS: AstraZeneca has reported a second consecutive quarter of growth in its quest to go it alone
August 1, 2014

Investors who applauded AstraZeneca’s (AZN) snub of Pfizer’s (US: PFE) takeover bid earlier this year will be keen to see how the first half of the 2014 financial year is shaping up. The headline figures don’t paint the prettiest picture, but shareholders knew this was coming. In January, chief executive Pascal Soriot said Astra would not deliver meaningful growth until 2017.

IC TIP: Hold at 4,365p

On closer inspection, however, the story is not all doom and gloom. Second-quarter sales of cardiovascular, respiratory and diabetes products were strong. Diabetes in particular drove an 8 per cent increase in US revenues, which helped boost EPS 13 per cent. Management consequently upgraded full-year guidance: Astra's sales are now expected to be in line with 2013 levels at constant currencies, and the EPS decline less severe than previously expected.

As usual, the focus is on the product pipeline - the 114 drugs progressing through clinical testing. Fourteen of these are either in final-phase testing or under regulatory review, including cancer treatment Olaparib. In June, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) didn’t approve the drug for treating ovarian cancer, but Astra hopes it will prove effective in trials with breast cancer patients.

Although Astra’s future hinges on lucrative oncology products, its historic expertise in respiratory diseases remains a top priority. In late July it bought Spanish pharma company Almirall’s respiratory business for $875m (£519.80m), which could rise to more than $1bn if certain sales-related milestones are met.

The half-year results are a boon for Mr Soriot, who is under pressure to show AstraZeneca can deliver growth as a standalone company since rejecting Pfizer’s offer. It’s possible Pfizer will make a fresh approach for AstraZeneca in November, when the legal cooling off period ends, or sooner if Astra agrees to talks. But an investor conference for the group's shareholders on 18 November may reduce the chances of fresh negotiations. Mr Soriot will have to convince the City he can really grow revenues by three-quarters over the next decade.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect pre-tax profits of $5.31bn for the full year, giving EPS of 449ȼ.

ASTRAZENECA (AZN)
ORD PRICE:4,365pMARKET VALUE:£55bn
TOUCH:4,364-4,366p12-MONTH HIGH:4,845pLOW: 3,086p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.9%PE RATIO:46
NET ASSET VALUE:1,746ȼ*NET DEBT:23%

Half-year to 30 JuneTurnover ($bn)Pre-tax profit ($bn)Earnings per share (ȼ)Dividend per share (p)
201312.62.3914759.2
201412.91.5010353.1
% change+2-38-30-10

Ex-div: 13 Aug

Payment: 15 Sep

*Includes £32.7bn of intangible assets or 2,592ȼ per share

£1=$1.68