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Ithaca's major buy signal

Shares in North Sea oil junior Ithaca Energy look poised for a sharp re-rating following this major buy signal
May 16, 2013

You can't often buy shares in an established North Sea oil producer valued at just over a third of the sector average, where oil production is forecast to double this year and rise by half again the year after.

IC TIP: Buy at 106p
Tip style
Speculative
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Doubling oil production in 2013
  • Major chart support
  • Strong cash-flow generation
  • Cheap valuation
Bear points
  • Large debt pile
  • Oil price weakness
  • Project development risk

Yet such is the case with Ithaca Energy (IAE), whose share price slumped to a three-year low last week but has since bounced off a major support level around 100p. This is very significant because each time the shares have previously touched this level - in June last year, October 2011 and August 2010 - Ithaca's share price rallied strongly to produce double-digit gains. Moreover, the 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) - a momentum oscillator - is now in deeply oversold territory and at a depressed level which coincided with the start of the three aforementioned rallies. Another multi-week rally looks imminent.

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