But in recent months, markets have been nervously anticipating the inversion of the yield curve, a rare event when longer-dated bonds are cheaper than their shorter-term equivalents. When this happens, historical precedent suggests economic recession is close.
These signals have been flashing throughout 2019, but hit a psychologically significant marker just over a fortnight ago, when for the first time since 2007 the price of two-year US Treasuries fell below their 10-year counterparts (2s10s). UK yield curves inverted on the same day. The market has sent its message, loud and clear: we should expect both economies to soon slow or even contract.