All else being equal, the lights will stay on this winter. But it may be a different story once the weather gets cold again in late 2023. And prices are staying high, unfortunately.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has slowly severed trade lines into the rest of Europe. A mild autumn and a greater sense of urgency has helped ensure European gas storage facilities were virtually full as of early December. However, almost 10 months after the war started, the continent still looks to be struggling to guarantee gas supplies over the medium term.
Imported gas is crucial for power generation in most countries in the region – only the UK and Norway produce significant amounts of their own – and prices are forecast to remain high for years to come as Russian supply is replaced by pricey liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.