- Historically, election results have a surprisingly muted impact on the economy
- But market movements could prove more dramatic
Rishi Sunak’s ‘working assumption’ that there won’t be a general election until the second half of the year has cooled the UK’s election fever. But if a 2024 UK election does happen, we will not be alone. There will be 65 elections across the world this year, giving 40 per cent of the global population a chance to vote. If this feels exceptional, it’s because it is: we will have to wait until 2048 for the world to see as many elections in a single year again.
As global growth slows under the burden of higher interest rates, politicians of all stripes will try to win over voters with visions of economic recovery. But as the table shows, economists are far more sceptical about the likely real impact of election results this year.