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BP bonds look slick

BOND OF THE WEEK: The wrath of the US provides an opportunity in BP's bonds
June 23, 2010

Coming a close third in the unpopularity stakes, after vuvuzuela horns and the French football team, is the once unassailable BP. The share price of the company has halved to 349p and there will be no more dividends this year. Even beyond that, a combination of clean-up costs, fines and litigation-hungry lawyers could reduce the payout.

IC TIP: Hold

But this adversity creates a contrarian opportunity for canny bond investors, and in particular those prepared to take a look at the BP 4% Dec 2014 bond.

The point is that, unlike with equity dividends, the US government cannot force the cessation of payments on senior debt, as to do so would legally force BP into bankruptcy. Even though bondholders have endured the same volatility in the capital value as equity shareholders at least the income, like BP's troublesome well, is still flowing.

Of course, the risk of buying BP bonds has increased considerably and this is reflected in rapid series of credit rating downgrades from a blue chip AA+ (Fitch) to the current BBB. The bond still manages to keep single-A status with Moody's and S&P, but these ratings are on watch for downgrade.

Price-wise, the bond market has reacted predictably with an initial panic, followed by a period of confusion and now some gentle bargain hunting after the price fell from 105p down to recent lows of near 90p. The bond now trades at around the 95p level, equivalent to a 5.3 per cent yield, or nearly 3 percentage points more than gilts of the same maturity.

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