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James Fisher of profits

SHARE TIP: James Fisher & Sons (FSJ)
June 25, 2009

BULL POINTS:

■ Offshore oil production to rise in the long term

■ Niche positions should be resilient

■ Long customer contracts

■ Borrowings set to fall

BEAR POINTS:

■ Prolonged low oil price

■ Shipping slump may be prolonged

IC TIP: Buy at 413p

The hunt is on for defensive shares and James Fisher's could fit the bill, with the company's blend of indirect exposure to commodities, a portfolio of highly specialist products and client relationships that span decades. While the rest of the shipping industry has been taking on water for months, marine services specialist James Fisher & Sons has ridden out the storm with demand for its skills and technology holding steady.

The lack of direct exposure to commodity prices puts the company ahead on points compared with ship owners and brokers. The unsteady oil price has affected big spending decisions, But James Fisher provides the services that keep marine rigs working - and demand for that holds steady. Also, there is an assumption that future recoverable reserves of oil and gas will have to be found in deeper waters and this will open up new opportunities for the company's oil services division. The biggest potential lies off the west coast of Africa, but the North Sea remains a vital area for James Fisher, where the expertise at its pump tools division helps extract oil from depleted fields.

The other parts of the group deal with even smaller niches. Fendercare provides specialist mooring equipment for ocean-going vessels and ship-to-ship oil transfers. Although James Fisher is not directly exposed as a ship owner to the consequences of falling freight rates, this trend could have hit the ship services division. However, analysts at stockbroker Investec Securities think that, ironically, more vessels being tied up could create demand for additional mooring equipment.

ORD PRICE:413pMARKET VALUE:£206m
TOUCH:412-414p12-MONTH HIGH:655pLOW: 200p 
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.6%PE RATIO:10
NET ASSET VALUE:195pNET DEBT:94%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20059111.421.98.8
200611814.123.910.0
200718219.132.711.4
200823423.636.913.0
2009*24528.043.014.8
% change+2+10+10+10

Normal market size:1,000

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.25

*Investec forecasts (Profits & earnings not comparable with 2008)

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Many of the company's activities require highly trained personnel, which, Fisher's bosses claim, creates a significant barrier for competitors. Fisher is the acknowledged leader in submarine rescue vessels, which forms part of the defence division, and the company should see the benefit of this in the second half when it receives payment for a long-standing contract to supply Singapore with submarine rescue technology. The payment for that contract will also have a positive effect on the company's debt-to-equity ratio (see table) because so far Fisher has had to carry the working-capital costs of construction, which was £14m in the latest accounts. In addition, the company will receive an annual service fee for the next 20 years.

Fisher has avoided dashing for growth via acquisitions, and most of the growth seen last year was organic. This reflects an expansion policy that has focused on specialist niche businesses with growth potential and a decent geographic spread of activities - a plan that looks prudent in the current economic environment.

Against that, although the company is not directly affected by the oil price it, nevertheless, relies on infrastructure spending by oil companies. Although this is less of an issue now that the oil price has started to recover, prolonged oil-price weakness does cause investment decisions on big projects to be deferred. However, in the long term, if reserves become harder to find, then this will be beneficial for Fisher as it will make deep-sea exploration and drilling more viable. Another concern is that, if the slump in demand for shipping is as harsh as some industry professionals expect, then this will hit Fisher, particularly if scrapped tonnage is not replaced.