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GKN flies past forecasts

RESULTS: After negotiating a tough and expensive first half, GKN can look forward to a much better second half
July 30, 2013

GKN's (GKN) shares raced to a record high after the engineer grew underlying operating profit by 10 per cent during the first half to £320m - far higher than expected. Moreover, an expensive restructuring is over, new aircraft programmes are ramping up and last year's acquisition of Volvo's aerospace business is doing well, which should mean an even better second half.

IC TIP: Buy at 349p

Analysts are reassessing forecasts, but Investec Securities currently expects full-year adjusted pre-tax profit of £567.9m, giving adjusted EPS of 27.4p (from £497m and 26.2p in 2012). That's likely to change. For chief executive Nigel Stein, the numbers were "very much as expected". A £98m paper loss on foreign exchange contracts halved reported profits, and well-flagged restructuring costs of £25m, mostly redundancies, affected every division bar aerospace. Two-thirds fell on the driveshafts unit, Driveline. Still, strip that out and both margin and profit there improved despite a tough automotive market.

GKN's enlarged aerospace business was the biggest profit generator for the first time, making £118m - up 37 per cent thanks to £37m from Volvo - which offset declines on military programmes. And that trend should continue, given that commercial aerospace now generates 71 per cent of divisional sales, and both Boeing and Airbus have thousands of planes to build. Even Driveline and fellow automotive business Powder Metallurgy are tipped to do better in the coming months, and lower costs will help the bottom line.

GKN (GKN)

ORD PRICE:349pMARKET VALUE:£5.71bn
TOUCH:348-349p12-MONTH HIGH:354pLow:  200p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.1%PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:111p*NET DEBT:51%

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20123.2527913.92.40
20133.651345.802.60
% change+12-52-58+8

Ex-div: 14 Aug

Payment: 23 Sep

*Includes intangible assets of £1.6bn, or 98p a share