Join our community of smart investors

Hogg Robinson's wings are clipped

Growth prospects for travel services company Hogg Robinson look muted.
March 12, 2015

A sharp shift towards online booking, a decline in business-travel spending and currency pressures are dragging on Hogg Robinson (HRG). In a recent trading update the corporate-travel specialist said tough conditions were persisting and revenues for the four months to January this year were down 2 per cent while client spending remained stagnant. Based on the forecasts of broker Peel Hunt - a fan of the stock - it will take until 2017 for the group to recover to last year's profit level. But this could prove optimistic, not least because Hogg Robinson's exposure to the energy sector could mean there is more trouble ahead due to the weak oil price.

IC TIP: Sell at 49p
Tip style
Sell
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Reduced net debt
  • Growing software sales
Bear points
  • Full-year profits expected to fall
  • High exposure to weak European market
  • Exposed to oil and gas sector
  • Margins squeezed by online shift

During the first-half of this financial year the group's pre-tax profits were down by almost a third to £11.3m while earnings per share dropped by a fifth to 1.9p. Trading has been tough for Hogg Robinson's travel management business, which generates 93 per cent of group revenue. In Europe, which accounts for 64 per cent of total sales, the recovery of the UK corporate travel market has slowed with client spend falling 2 per cent during the first half. Other European markets including Germany and Switzerland were also weak and some small and medium-sized enterprise clients also implemented travel-expenditure freezes.

Hogg Robinson's Asia Pacific business tells a similar story. The sluggish Australian economy meant booking activity in the country was down by almost a fifth during the first half. Added to this are Middle Eastern uncertainty and slowdown of the Chinese economy, both of which have impacted on business confidence.

 

 

And Hogg Robinson also faces a structural threat. Businesses are increasingly managing their travel booking online with around 46 per cent of booking handled this way during the first half of the year compared with 40 per cent the previous year. The move online has been faster than expected and Hogg Robinson earns lower margins on such transactions, with the group's average value per transaction down 17 per cent since 2010. As a result the group is reducing its cost base by cutting headcount and locations, as well as encouraging home working. Admittedly the group did achieve £7m in costs savings last year and aims to save a further £10m by the end of 2016. However, there is only so much fat-trimming that a company can do.

It is not all doom and gloom, though. During the first half the travel services group managed to reduce net debt from £80m to £59m. North America, while only 22 per cent of revenue is showing good growth. And the group's Spendvision business, which provides expenses software, enjoyed revenue growth of a fifth during the first half to £11.2m on a constant currency basis, although this represented just 7 per cent of sales.

Management's strategy for dealing with the challenges has included targeting growth in the marine, offshore and energy industries, and around 8 per cent of its corporate travel management revenues are now linked to the oil and gas sector. This could provide further bumps in the road as companies in the sector reduce their capital expenditure in response to oil price weakness.

HOGG ROBINSON (HGR)

ORD PRICE:49pMARKET VALUE:£159m
TOUCH:49-50p12-MONTH HIGH:80pLOW: 39p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:3.3%FORWARD PE RATIO:10
NET ASSET VALUE:*NET DEBT:£59m

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201237438.28.22.0
201334334.97.82.1
201434135.87.82.2
2015**33729.06.22.3
2016**34634.07.32.4
% change+3+17+18+4

Normal market size: 5,000

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.63

*Negative shareholders' funds

**Edison Investment forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures