February's Coppock readings proved the most bullish in a long time, once again prompted by renewed optimism that the worst of Europe's problems are behind it now that full-blown QE has arrived.
Following on from a flurry of cancelled sell signals (which we formerly described as unofficial buys) on European indices in January, which came in the wake of the European Central Bank's confirmation of its new QE programme, the system delivered another six cancelled sells and one official buy. Among these were the three major UK indices, including the FTSE 100 which hit a new record high last week.
As we have previously noted, the Coppock system has hardly covered itself in glory of late when timing exit rather than entry points - it's also been suggesting investors should be out of US markets, even as they continue to power to new highs. But our back-testing has suggested that following the system's ins and outs will deliver long-term outperformance even if it misses some short-term upside. The market's jitters this week come as a timely reminder that complacency can be dangerous.
Meanwhile, as sovereign bond buying under eurozone QE started this week, Coppock's readings on fixed income remain firmly bullish. Anyone doubting the system's usefulness should remember that its bond buy signals came at a time when most observers were suggesting the asset class was headed for a heavy fall.
February's Coppock signals
Buys | Sells |
Austria ATX | None |
Cancelled sells | Cancelled buys |
Australia ASX 200 | None |
Mexico IPC Bolsa | |
Germany DAX 30 Performance | |
Eurostoxx Stoxx Europe 50 | |
France CAC 40 | |
UK FTSE 100 | |
UK FTSE 250 | |
UK FTSE All-Share |
Latest Coppock readings and signals
North America | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Latest signal | Latest signal (date) |
SPX | 37.17 | 35.99 | 32.38 | 30.76 | SELL | Mar-14 |
DJINDUS | 24.7 | 25.05 | 22.6 | 21.86 | SELL | Jan-15 |
NASDAQ 100 | 57.01 | 54.75 | 50.29 | 49.18 | SELL | Sep-14 |
NASDAQ COMP | 47.72 | 44.86 | 40.07 | 38.74 | SELL | Apr-14 |
S&P/TSX | 33.61 | 30.49 | 26.9 | 24.55 | SELL | Oct-14 |
Asia Pacific, Africa | ||||||
BANGKOK S.E.T. - PRICE INDEX | 16.99 | 19.82 | 24.32 | 28.35 | BUY | Jun-14 |
FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI - PRICE INDEX | 10.44 | 7.1 | 4.22 | 1.94 | SELL | May-14 |
FTSE CHINA B 35 - PRICE INDEX | -0.86 | 6.03 | 12.85 | 20.98 | BUY | Aug-14 |
HANG SENG - PRICE INDEX | 11.1 | 11.15 | 11.3 | 12.67 | CANCEL SELL | Oct-14 |
KOREA SE COMPOSITE (KOSPI) - PRICE INDEX | 3.94 | 2.04 | 0.36 | -0.26 | SELL | Oct-14 |
IDX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 23.412 | 26.799 | 30.408 | 33.902 | CANCEL SELL | Jun-14 |
STRAITS TIMES INDEX L - PRICE INDEX | 6.85 | 9.12 | 10.93 | 12 | CANCEL SELL | Jul-14 |
TAIWAN SE WEIGHED TAIEX - PRICE INDEX | 23.29 | 22.65 | 21.96 | 21.45 | SELL | Sep-14 |
TOPIX - PRICE INDEX | 25.83 | 26.7 | 27.3 | 30.58 | CANCEL SELL | Dec-14 |
ASX 200 | 13 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 11.3 | CANCEL SELL* | Feb-14 |
NZ 50 | 19.07 | 18.52 | 19.48 | 21.28 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
JSE TOP 40 | 36.84 | 32.38 | 28.67 | 26.48 | SELL | Sep-14 |
SENSEX | 67.92 | 69.17 | 72.28 | 72.64 | CANCEL SELL | Mar-14 |
South America | ||||||
MEXICO IPC (BOLSA) - PRICE INDEX | 12.36 | 13.42 | 12.27 | 12.76 | CANCEL SELL* | Feb-14 |
BRAZIL BOVESPA - TOT RETURN IND | 11.49 | 10.57 | 7.47 | 6.55 | SELL | Dec-14 |
MSCI EM LATIN AMERICA U$ - PRICE INDEX | -4.261 | -7.172 | -12.006 | -16.55 | CANCEL BUY | Nov-14 |
Europe/UK | ||||||
AEX INDEX (AEX) - PRICE INDEX | 24.09 | 22.6 | 22.9 | 25.75 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
ATHEX COMPOSITE - PRICE INDEX | 23.85 | 5.25 | -14.95 | -27.52 | SELL | Jun-14 |
ATX - AUSTRIAN TRADED INDEX - PRICE INDEX | -9.04 | -14.67 | -19.36 | -17.98 | BUY* | Feb-14 |
BEL 20 - PRICE INDEX | 34.4 | 32.54 | 32.86 | 34.88 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
DAX 30 PERFORMANCE - PRICE INDEX | 28.14 | 24.45 | 23.29 | 25.14 | SELL | Jun-14 |
EURO STOXX 50 - PRICE INDEX | 26.398 | 22.092 | 19.841 | 20.581 | CANCEL SELL* | Feb-14 |
FRANCE CAC 40 - PRICE INDEX | 18.12 | 14.14 | 12.6 | 14.4 | CANCEL SELL* | Feb-14 |
FTSE 100 - PRICE INDEX | 6.28 | 4.39 | 3.33 | 3.78 | CANCEL SELL* | Feb-14 |
FTSE 250 - PRICE INDEX | 14.6 | 11.75 | 9.12 | 9.31 | CANCEL SELL* | Feb-14 |
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX | 7.65 | 5.58 | 4.24 | 4.62 | CANCEL SELL* | Feb-14 |
FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 41.28 | 31.72 | 25.48 | 22.37 | SELL | Jul-14 |
IBEX 35 - PRICE INDEX | 45.25 | 37.59 | 30.97 | 27.25 | SELL | Sep-14 |
IRELAND SE GENERAL (ISEQ) - PRICE INDEX | 30.29 | 29.35 | 29.73 | 33.81 | CANCEL SELL* | Jan-15 |
OMX STOCKHOLM 30 (OMXS30) - PRICE INDEX | 27.33 | 26.84 | 28.18 | 32.25 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
OSLO EXCHANGE ALL SHARE - TOT RETURN IND | 40.01 | 34.12 | 28.8 | 24.99 | SELL | Sep-14 |
PORTUGAL PSI-20 - PRICE INDEX | 0.54 | -11.88 | -22.34 | -28.66 | SELL | Jun-14 |
RUSSIAN MICEX INDEX - PRICE INDEX | 3.18 | 0.94 | 5.6 | 13.19 | CANCEL SELL | Jan-15 |
SWISS MARKET (SMI) - PRICE INDEX | 20.95 | 20.44 | 16.84 | 16.56 | SELL | Dec-14 |