On Wednesday the NIESR is expected to estimate that GDP grew by 0.5 per cent in Q3, a slowdown from Q2's 0.7 per cent. This would be consistent with numbers from the ONS the same day, which should show that while manufacturing output recovered a little in August after July's surprise slump, it is on course to have fallen in the quarter.
We'll see on Friday a big reason for this: the UK's trade deficit is likely to have widened in the third quarter, implying that net trade has depressed output growth.
One reason for this is that our biggest trading partner, the euro area, is growing only slowly. Official figures are likely to show that retail sales were flat in August, implying growth of only around 0.3 per cent in the quarter. And there's unlikely to have been much acceleration last month: purchasing managers are expected to report that services growth slowed in September. Industrial figures will also be lacklustre. Output in Germany is expected to be flat in August, after a good July, putting the sector on course for slight growth in the quarter, whilst output in France is unlikely to have recovered much in the month after falling in June and July.
Taken altogether, these numbers will be consistent with the euro area economy being stuck with annualised GDP growth of around 1 per cent - which implies that, so far at least, the ECB's quantitative easing has not led to any pick-up in growth at all (though of course things might have been even worse without QE).
Luckily, though, the UK's services sector is healthier than manufacturing. Purchasing managers are expected to report decent growth in September, albeit slightly less so than earlier this year. One reason for this is that higher real wages are raising consumer spending. However, the RICS is likely to say on Tuesday that they are also raising house prices - especially when combined which a chronic lack of supply.
On Thursday, we'll get the MPC's monetary policy decision. It will leave rates unchanged, believing that the risks of weak global growth outweigh evidence that wage inflation is picking up. What'll be of interest is whether any member has joined Ian McCafferty in dissenting from this view in voting for a rate rise.
