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Michael Page another casualty of emerging market blues

Michael Page delivered operational progress in 2015, but regional difficulties - most notably in Brazil - have hurt investor sentiment
March 11, 2016

Michael Page (MPI) delivered full-year figures broadly in line with City estimates, with gross profits of £556m, reflecting 9.3 per cent growth at constant currencies (15 per cent excluding Brazil). The group remains cash positive despite a £50m special dividend paid in October, but Michael Page's valuation, in common with that of recruitment industry peers, could come under pressure in 2016 as scrutiny of labour markets in China and Latin America will doubtless intensify.

IC TIP: Buy at 392p

Despite the usual regional variations, it is hard to criticise the group's operational progress through 2015. Operating profit improved as a percentage of gross profit, while the proportion of fee earners increased as overall headcount expanded 4.6 per cent over the year. This helped the fee earner to operational support staff ratio to maintain its record level of 77:23.

As foreshadowed, trading conditions remain problematic in Brazil as the country's economic struggles under the weight of the Petrobras scandal, and softening activity in both China and the UK domestic markets. Managements sugges Brexit uncertainty could be a factor in the latter.

Analysts at Stifel anticipate adjusted pre-tax profits of £105m in 2016, leading to EPS of 22.3p, up from £91m and 21.3p in 2015.

 

MICHAEL PAGE INTERNATIONAL (MPI)
ORD PRICE:392pMARKET VALUE:£1.28bn
TOUCH:392-393p12-MONTHHIGH:550pLOW: 358p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.9%PE RATIO:18
NET ASSET VALUE:68p*NET CASH:£95m

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20111.0286.018.710.0
20120.9957.011.910.0
20131.0164.113.810.5
20141.0580.419.311.0
20151.0690.721.311.5
% change+2+13+10+5

Ex-div: 19 May

Payment: 20 Jun

*Includes intangible assets of £36.3m, or 11p a share

†Excludes special dividend paid in October of 16p a share.