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Informa looks out of shape

Informa is reorganising and investing in its business, but it may be years before the results are in.
July 30, 2014

Informa (INF) surprised investors with organic growth of 1.9 per cent last half, up from 0.6 per cent in the first four months of the year. That may lend credence to the publishing, business intelligence and events giant’s restructuring plans – it recently appointed new management and consolidated its operations under four divisional heads.

IC TIP: Sell at 485p

The strategy is a departure from the textbook of a company that has spent 25 years building a hive of distinct operating units that were largely left to their own devices. Informa has also earmarked £60m to £90m for organic investment over the next three years, but that could depress its margin by up to 2.5 percentage points. The goal is to return its floundering business intelligence unit to growth by the end of 2016. Divisional sales fell about 7 per cent (organically) to £161m over the half, reflecting a lack of divisional structure as well as greater frugality in the pharmaceutical and financial industries.

Informa’s standout performer was its global events division, which increased adjusted operating profit by 18 per cent to £70m. That can be explained by the acquisition of China Beauty Expo, which attracted 250,000 visitors to its flagship event in Shanghai. Those gains could accelerate - Informa is acquiring US trade show organiser Virgo to establish a foothold in the world’s largest exhibition market.

Broker N+1 Singer expects adjusted pre-tax profits of £293m, giving EPS of 38.1p, falling to £291m and 37.6p in 2015.

INFORMA (INF)
ORD PRICE:485pMARKET VALUE:£2.9bn
TOUCH:484-485p12-MONTH HIGH:577pLOW: 464p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.9%PE RATIO:24
NET ASSET VALUE:195p*NET DEBT:67%

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2013564759.66.4
2014570100136.4
% change+1+34+35-

Ex-div:13 Aug

Payment:11 Sep

*Includes intangible assets of £2.3bn, or 385p a share