Join our community of smart investors

Vote leave at Euromoney

The financial information and events group faces challenges in multiple markets
June 30, 2016

Just as the British electorate has cut ties with Europe, investors in Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) should head for the exit. Widespread macroeconomic uncertainty, depressed energy and commodity markets and rising costs in the banking sector continue to weigh on the financial information and events group, while Brexit has further clouded the outlook. There's scope for the shares to fall further and the yield is nothing special.

IC TIP: Sell at 915p
Tip style
Sell
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Short Term
Bull points
  • Weak sales and profit growth
  • Declines across several divisions
  • Depressed financial and energy markets
  • Brexit uncertainty could fuel further losses
Bear points
  • Institutional Investor's subscription growth
  • Restructuring could galvanise a recovery

Euromoney publishes its eponymous titles, provides specialist data and information and organises training and events. It earns more than two-thirds of its revenues from investment bankers, who have faced regulatory fines and higher compliance costs since the financial crisis. That has tempered demand for subscriptions and advertising in Euromoney's financial publications, as well as interest in training and industry events. Meanwhile, plunging commodity prices have depressed trading in energy-dependent economies such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, dampening demand for its specialist titles and trade shows and weighing on banking and capital market activities there.

 

 

The problems were reflected in a 7 per cent slide in adjusted operating profits to below £47m in the six months to 31 March, which followed a 13 per cent decline last financial year. During the six months sponsorship sales fell by 8 per cent, while advertising and delegate turnover slumped by 13 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively. Higher property costs and the group's purchase of a sizeable stake in financial data group Dealogic also weighed on margins.

There were some brighter spots. Underlying subscription revenues account for more than 55 per cent of total turnover and managed to creep up 1 per cent, driven by Institutional Investor, which grew its membership sales by more than a tenth despite tighter asset management budgets. The key research and data business proved resilient, as adjusted operating profits rose 12 per cent. But profits fell across its other divisions, including by a quarter in Euromoney's second-largest business: conferences, seminars and training.

In recognition of the problems, Euromoney laid out a turnaround strategy in March that focuses on launching new products, hiking prices, targeting growth markets and pruning its portfolio. It's also targeting asset management, price discovery and other sectors where information, data and networking are valued. The group also sold its Petroleum Economist and Gulf Publishing titles for $18m in April. But it continues to face external challenges: it has stomached about £24m in impairment costs at its Mining Indaba subsidiary due to currency devaluation and a weaker growth outlook in South Africa.

EUROMONEY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR (ERM)
ORD PRICE:915pMARKET VALUE:£1.2bn
TOUCH:915-924p12-MONTH HIGH:1,241pLOW: 851p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:2.7%FORWARD PE RATIO:14
NET ASSET VALUE:347p*NET CASH:£55.9m**

Year to 30 SepTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)***Earnings per share (p)***Dividend per share (p)
201340511771.022.8
201440711670.623.0
201540310870.123.4
2016***39510364.723.9
2017***40110667.224.3
% change+1+3+4+2

Normal market size: 200

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.45

*Includes intangible assets of £523m, or 408p a share

**Includes £43.7m in cash deposited with parent company, excludes $18m (£13.2m) from disposals in April 2016

***Numis forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures