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James Fisher's growth has further to sail

The market has woken up to the marine service company's resilience in the past year, but we think earnings growth rates remain promising for the shares
March 9, 2017

As an engineering company with expertise in deep-sea diving and submarines, James Fisher & Sons (FSJ) is used to dealing with pressure. That's been useful, as for some time now the marine service and engineering outfit's end markets have been under pressure thanks to client budget cuts to offshore oil exploration, restrained military spending and a cramped commercial marine industry. In these choppy waters, the company has coped admirably, diversifying into areas such as nuclear decommissioning, renewable energy and niche services such as saturation diving and last year booked an 11 per cent jump in underlying pre-tax profit to £45.8m. That figure would have been even higher had the company not hedged a portion of its earnings against the dollar. We think improving market conditions mean James Fisher's shares have further to climb.

IC TIP: Buy at 1598p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
Medium
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Delayed currency benefits
  • Improvements in offshore oil
  • Long-term track record
  • Contract momentum
Bear points
  • High rating
  • Market unmoved by management optimism

Last year, the marine support (44 per cent of sales and 39 per cent of profit), specialist technical (33 per cent sales and 37 per cent profit) and tankships (12 per cent sales and 15 per cent profit) divisions all saw strong profit growth. One of the biggest contributors to that performance was JFD, a submarine rescue and saturation diving equipment business, which contributed 70 per cent of the specialist technical business's revenues and helped the division's operating margins rise from 10.7 per cent to 13.1 per cent. Full-year results were also accompanied by another multiyear diving saturation contract win. Elsewhere, there was a 40 per cent increase in renewables and tidal revenues, while the marine services group is also benefiting from an uptick in demand for its Container Weight System product, following regulatory changes requiring all shipping containers to be weighed.

 

 

We see several other reasons to be positive about the future. Firstly, it now seems almost inevitable that offshore oil work will return soon. Statoil implied as much in January, when the world's largest field operator blamed a near-fatal accident at one of its North Sea fields on a lack of maintenance. Second, management's assertion that 2017 has started with "strong order books and a number of active prospects" - a bullish tone by their standards - may have failed to budge the stock, which remains flat since September, but we think is worth paying heed to. And the company's track record suggests it will make the most of its opportunities. Underlying EPS has grown at an average compound rate of 12 per cent a year for a decade, and the shares boast an unbroken 22-year dividend growth record.

Then there is a positive currency effect, which has been delayed due to the company's hedging policies. A £1.4m benefit last year compared with what would have been about £6m unhedged, but, other things being equal, should now reverse out.

JAMES FISHER & SONS (FSJ)

ORD PRICE:1,598pMARKET VALUE:£802m
TOUCH:1,598-1,603p12-MONTH HIGH:1,699pLOW: 990p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:2.0%FORWARD PE RATIO:18
NET ASSET VALUE:513p*NET DEBT:41%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)**Earnings per share (p)**Dividend per share (p)
201444546.974.022.0
201543841.268.523.8
201646645.876.326.2
2017**50150.784.628.8
2018**52452.487.531.6
% change+5+3+3+10

Normal market size: 200

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.52

*Includes intangible assets of £181m, or 360p a share.

**Investec forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures