Join our community of smart investors

Diamond prices set to consolidate

ANALYSIS: The rise in diamond prices looks set to moderate, although the outlook remains positive
February 24, 2010
by LiM

In announcing Petra Diamonds' half-year results, chief executive Johan Dippenaar pointed to several indicators of a strong recent recovery in the diamond market. Rough diamond prices have recovered to within 80-95 per cent of their levels before the 2008 crash, and buyers who have exhausted their stockpiles have started to buy again.

IC TIP: Hold at 59p

Mr Dippenaar has seen the market reduce its dependence on the US (traditionally 50 per cent of the global market) and Japan, with China having overtaken Japan as the second most important market and Indian demand also growing. Chinese and Indian demand had already been growing strongly for a couple of years, but this growth is no longer coming from its previous low base.

Christmas saw "no fireworks but at least some encouraging signs" and Mr Dippenaar expects a return to healthy price increases in a year to 18 months' time, following more modest short-term gains. Brock Salier, mining analyst at Ambrian, agrees with this assessment: "We saw a huge kick-back in diamond prices as a result of destocking and supply drop-off. The restocking kick is coming to an end though, so we shouldn't expect the same growth this year."

Even if rough diamond prices don't race ahead as much as they did last year, Mr Dippenaar can, at least, console himself with the sale of the 507-carat 'Cullinan Heritage' diamond, the result of which is expected to be announced any day now.

Improving conditions have also sparked a flurry of activity in the sector. Pangea DiamondFields has agreed to merge with Oslo-listed International Gold Exploration, creating a group that will have nine diamond projects across Angola, South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo, including a producing mine and two near-term operations. Stellar Diamonds, which demerged from African Aura Mining, has returned to the Alternative Investment Market following its reverse takeover by West African Diamonds.

Elsewhere in precious stones, Gemfields followed the announcement of first production from its trial underground mine in Zambia with the discovery of a giant 6,225-carat emerald nicknamed "the elephant".