It looks as if the UK's economic recovery almost ground to a halt in the spring, as real GDP grew by just 0.2 per cent then.
Appearances, though, are deceptive. Output was depressed then by maintenance shutdowns in the North Sea and by a shortage of parts following the Japanese earthquake. A recovery from these temporary factors could add 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the third quarter (Q3).
And there were two other factors holding back the economy in Q2. The extra bank holiday to celebrate the royal wedding reduced production. And the sale of £300m of Olympic tickets reduced demand; this spending won't show up in the GDP data until Q3 2012, but it did divert spending away from other products in the quarter. These factors should cause at least the appearance of growth in Q3, simply because the numbers will compare a normal quarter to an unusually weak one.
Statistically speaking, then, the economy might grow strongly in the next few months.
But only statistically speaking. At least four things threaten to hold back the upturn.
One is that the euro area economy is slowing. Taking April and May together, industrial production grew by just 0.4 per cent compared with Q1. But in Q1 it rose by 1.1 per cent compared with Q4. And recent falls in business confidence in Belgium and France point to this slowdown continuing.
This matters because almost half the UK's exports go to the eurozone. In fact, we export more to Italy and Spain than to Brazil, Russia, India and China put together.
Second, the squeeze on household finances will continue. Higher utility bills in the autumn will cut real wages further. And it's possible that unemployment will rise again. Labour productivity has, unusually, stagnated in recent years which suggests that companies have been hoarding workers. If they decide to stop doing so, joblessness will rise.
It's small wonder, then, that households are pessimistic. A survey by research group Markit found that 62 per cent expect the economy to deteriorate in the next 12 months. This at least points to further weakness in consumer spending.
Third, there's little sign of a pick up in corporate investment; large government borrowing (the counterpart of a corporate financial surplus) and weak GDP in Q2 both tell us this. A combination of spare capacity, uncertainty about future demand and a lack of monetisable investment opportunities are holding investment back.
Fourth, there's the problem of tight fiscal policy. The issue here is not just George Osborne's "cuts". Jamie Dannhauser at Lombard Street Research estimates that next year will see the biggest worldwide fiscal tightening for 30 years. While it's possible - though unlikely - for one economy to see its exports rise sufficiently to offset lower government spending, it is impossible for the whole world to do so. And this will hit the UK.
The consensus among economic forecasters is that real GDP will grow 1.4 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent in 2012. This is less than the average growth rate between 1991 and 2009 - which suggests that a return to the 'normal' times of the 90s and 00s is some way off.
