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Aegis remains resilient

RESULT: Aegis managed a resilient performance in a tough market, but job cuts loom as the trading environment grows more difficult.
March 20, 2009

Favourable currency movements, acquisitions and an impressive emerging markets performance has propelled revenue growth at marketing and communications group, Aegis. But tougher trading conditions have prompted management to implement a cost-cutting scheme which will see the company axe 5 per cent of its workforce. That should save £20m by mid-2010.

IC TIP: Hold at 76.75p

Acquisitions lifted revenues by £67m in the period, while favourable currency movements bolstered the figure by £112.5m - leaving organic revenue growth at a reasonable 4.6 per cent. Restructuring has chipped into group pre-tax profits, with £27.4m spent last year, and another £12m to be charged in 2009. Acquisitions and currency movements have also bolstered the group's debt burden, and net debt grew by £52.3m in the period to £297.5m. However, Aegis remains comfortably within its banking covenants, with the debt-to-earnings ratio at a comfortable 1.2 times (against a covenant requirement of less than three times).

At the divisional level, revenues from the largest group's unit - Aegis Media - increased 22.3 per cent in the period, to £828.3m, with organic revenues there up by a respectable 6.1 per cent. Adjust for currencies and sales from Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Asia Pacific grew 11.5 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively, to £558m and £68.4m. This has helped to mitigate a poor US performance, where client losses have resulted in flat sales growth. Management says net new business was down, but adds that there were more "defensive pitches" around - with Aegis retaining a number of key clients such as Disney Europe and Santander UK.

Meanwhile, Aegis' market research and business intelligence operation, Synovate, benefited from a growing international presence. On a constant currency basis, Synovate's revenues from the EMEA region, and Asia Pacific, rose 11.2 per cent and 20.7 per cent, respectively, in 2008, to £248.4m and £124.6m. Again, that helped mitigate Synovate's weaker US revenues, which inched up just 1.4 per cent to £145.2m.

Analyst Alex DeGroote of broker Panmure Gordon is expecting a pre-tax profit of £150m for 2009, giving EPS of 7.99p (8.85p in 2008).

AEGIS (AGS)

ORD PRICE:77pMARKET VALUE:£892.3m
TOUCH:76-77p12-MONTH HIGH:134pLOW: 45p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.2%PE RATIO:11
NET ASSET VALUE:42p*NET DEBT:65%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20047.6091.95.501.45
20058.0894.05.601.65
20068.231146.801.90
20079.351327.902.30
200810.41257.302.50
% change+11-5-6+9

Ex-div: 29 Apr

Payment: 28 May

*Includes intangible assets of £1.2bn, or 105p a share

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