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Greggs set to rise

RESULT: The rain may have put a dampener on Greggs' recent trading, but the business has huge scope for expansion
August 11, 2009

Greggs - Britain's 'foremost providers of bakery food-on-the-go' - managed to fend off the high street downturn as six million hungry shoppers a week were tempted by its value savoury products and sandwiches.

IC TIP: Hold at 412.6p

The baker saw like-for-like sales climb 1.5 per cent, although it admitted that the rate of growth had slowed since its trading statement on 15 May. It said that like-for-like sales in the first six weeks of its new financial year were flat as a result of the wet weather. 

Analysts also believe that overall sales volumes had declined, with sales propped up by price increases, but underlying operating profits rose 8.9 per cent to £16.3m, as a result of tight cost control as well as the sale of 10 loss-making stores in Belgium. The group benefited from improved efficiencies as it launched a new bakery in Manchester, and continued to harmonise its product range across its 1,400 stores - it said it is on track to harmonise 80 per cent of its products by the year-end. New product launches and upgrades also boosted trading, and the proportion of sales derived from new products trebled over the year.

Broker Altium Securities expects full-year pre-tax profits of £46.4m and EPS of 31.5p (£45.2m and 30.6p in 2008).

GREGGS (GRG)

ORD PRICE:413pMARKET VALUE:£429m
TOUCH:413-414p12-MONTH HIGH:424pLOW: 275p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.7%PE RATIO:14
NET ASSET VALUE:140pNET CASH:£14.9m

Half-year to 27 JunTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
2008*29923.415.94.90
200931216.511.35.20
% change+4-29-29+6

Ex-div: 2 Sep

Payment: 2 Oct

*Prior year earnings and dividends adjusted for 10-for-1 share split on 18 Jun 2009

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