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Churchill China beats estimates

RESULTS: Solid figures from Churchill China led brokers to upgrade their forecasts – but the share price rating reflects its progress
March 28, 2012

Churchill China's full-year performance beat brokers' expectations as strong hospitality unit sales offset a continued retail decline. Although, adjust for the cash pile, and the shares trade on a not so cheap 11 times expected earnings – leaving that progress looking priced-in.

IC TIP: Hold at 283p

Crockery sales to hotels and restaurants in the hospitality business rose 6.5 per cent year-on-year to £29.2m and the operating profit here increased 16 per cent £4.1m. Sales in the UK rose 6 per cent and a growing overseas market saw sales there up 7 per cent - driven by demand from the Middle East, including a large order from the Qatar National Conference Centre. Still, the supermarket-focused, high-volume but low-margin retail side saw sales slip 20 per cent to £13.1m. Although efforts to push products through independent shops and garden centres at higher margins lifted divisional operating profit from £0.7m to £1m. Churchill also launched 250 new products in 2011, up from 88 in 2010, and chief executive Andrew Roper expects investment in new products to drive sales in 2012.

Broker N+1 Brewin has upped its 2012 pre-tax profit forecast by 3.5 per cent to £2.9m and boosted its EPS estimate by 10 per cent to 20.4p (from £2.7m and 19.2p in 2011).

CHURCHILL CHINA (CHH)

ORD PRICE:283pMARKET VALUE:£31m
TOUCH:275-29012-MONTH HIGH:330pLOW: 263p
DIVIDEND YIELD:4.9%PE RATIO:15
NET ASSET VALUE:253pNET CASH:£6.9m

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
200746.94.8433.813.7
200842.03.3613.814.0
200941.72.0714.314.0
201043.72.3115.814.0
201142.32.6919.214.0
% change-3+16+22-

Ex-div: 24 Apr

Payment: 24 May