Week Ahead 29 October - 2 November

Monday 29 October

Interim: Rugby Estates

Final: Tristel

Trading statements: Gem Diamonds

AGM: Goldplat

Economics: Hometrack housing survey, Net consumer credit, Net lending secured on dwellings, Mortgage approvals, M4 money supply

Tuesday 30 October

Interim: Braemar Shipping Services

Final: Imperial Tobacco

Trading statements: BP, Perform Group, Seagate Technology, Stagecoach, Standard Chartered, Wolfson Microelectronics

AGM: Mirada:

Economics: CBI reported sales

Tobacco companies this year have been dogged by the threat of an increase in tobacco regulation across key markets. Imperial Tobacco (IMT) is no less exposed than its rivals in the main developed markets, with the added threat that even countries like Russia could ban smoking in public. That comes on top of moves by Australia to ban branded cigarette packaging which could trigger a wave of bans across the world. What has calmed the markets to a certain extent is that there seems to be little difference in the rate of decline in markets with differing sets of regulation. JP Morgan Cazenove estimates that Australia with some of the strictest smoking rules in the world has seen a compounded decline of 2.8 per cent in smoking since 1998. On the other hand in the US, which apart from New York City has traditionally lagged behind in regulation, the decline was similar at 2.7 per cent.

The key points to look out for Imperial at the third quarter will be volume of cigarettes sold and the ability to offset decline with price rises. Some parts of the overall tobacco market had seen declines stabilise, particularly in emerging markets, but the third quarter update should provide a clearer picture for the year as a whole. In Imperial’s case, it is the performance of the Spanish market that will be closely watched. Imperial’s top-of-the-market buyout of Altadis looks ever more precarious, with the Iberian division a major disappointment so far this year, which means the group’s EPS growth could be marginally behind the rest of the sector.

Forecasts for the full-year aren’t likely to change much after the third quarter results and JP Morgan Cazenove currently forecasts pre-tax profits of £2.66bn and EPS of 199p, up from £2.54bn and 188p, respectively, in 2011.

Following accusations in August by the superintendent of financial services in New York State that Standard Chartered (STAN) had “schemed with the government of Iran” to avoid US sanctions, investors remain nervous. After all, that episode sent shares in the banking group down from 1,556p on 3 August to just 1,228p on 7 August. And while management appeared to settle that issue by paying a $340m (£210m) fine, expect the bank’s third quarter trading update on 30 October to be closely scrutinised for evidence of further fall-out.

More pain is certainly possible - it’s estimated that fines totalling $1bn could be levied as other regulators, including the US Federal Reserve Bank and the US Justice Department, negotiate settlements. That’s a pity as, at a trading level, Standard is in great shape. Its focus on fast-growth Asia is delivering impressive earnings growth, yet credit quality remains enviably robust compared with that of a UK-focused lender. Broker Investec Securities expects underlying pre-tax profit for the year to end-December to rise 12 per cent to $7.58bn, giving EPS of 218.5¢. Still, the shares - which have recovered to 1,487p- do trade at a pricey 1.6 times Investec’s estimate of end-year net tangible assets. With ongoing uncertainty regarding a final regulatory settlement, that’s up with events.

Wednesday 31 October

Interims: Volex

Finals: Neos Resources, Tracsis

Trading statements: Aegis, Antofagasta, Barclays, F&C Asset Management, First Quantum Minerals, GlaxoSmithKline, Kerry Group, Mondi, Next, Phoenix Group Holdings, St James's Place, Standard Life

AGMs: Ashmore, Carpathian, Greenko, Ideagen, Pacific Horizon, Tricor

Economics: GfK Consumer confidence (October)

Barclays (BARC) has already served-up a taste of what can be expected from its forthcoming third-quarter trading update on 31 October. Earlier this month, it unexpectedly announced a £700m hike in provision against payment protection insurance (PPI) claims - that’s on top of the £1.3bn that has already been set aside for such claims. Broker Investec Securities had been expecting a further mis-selling provision of just £250m for the second-half.

Quite apart from such exceptional hits, Barclays faces plenty of trading challenges. To begin with, the lender boasts a hefty exposure to the weaker eurozone countries - a combined exposure of £58.3bn to Spain and Italy, for instance. The group is also overly exposed to both weak retail banking and excessively volatile investment banking. And, following on from July’s LIBOR-fixing scandal, reputational worries could yet re-emerge. The Serious Fraud Office, for example, is investigating fees paid to Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund in 2008 when Barclays was seeking fresh capital to avoid a government bailout. True, at 237p, the shares have jumped roughly 30 per cent since early September. But Barclays’ capacity to unexpectedly surprise on the downside remains impressive - leaving those gains looking precarious. Factor-in exceptional items, and Investec expects full-year pre-tax profit of £1.35bn, compared to last year’s £5.88bn, giving EPS of 0.6p.

GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) third-quarter results are likely to emphasise the relatively stable progress the company has made since the pharmaceutical group settled a major US Justice Department (DoJ) investigation into its marketing practices for $3bn (£1.87bn) earlier this year. With most of the regulatory problems now settled, investors will be looking for a better performance from the group’s US pharmaceutical division; sales here have lagged so far this year, partly, it is thought, because GSK’s marketing strategy has been toned down as a result of its legal wranglings.

The settlement with the DoJ removes some immediate uncertainty, but analysts at Citigroup highlight how competition between products within the same therapeutic class, along with generics, has been steadily increasing. This is particularly true of GSK’s blockbuster asthma treatment Advair which has lost ground to AstraZeneca’s Symbicort after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) changed its prescription guidelines in 2010; the trading announcement should confirm this trend. The company is also exposed to economic problems in the European Union forcing down prices for medicines, which is a problem for all companies in the sector at the moment.

That said, GSK’s profitable consumer healthcare division (Sensodyne toothpaste and Lucozade) sets it apart from peers struggling with patent-expired medicines and its performance will be closely watched for any signs that the squeeze on consumer spending is having a negative impact. Consensus estimates put third quarter pre-tax profits at £1.93bn, giving EPS of 28.7p.

Thursday 1 November

Interim: BT

Trading statements: Avocet Mining, BG, British Sky Broadcasting, Ensco, Henderson Group, Legal & General, Lloyds Banking, Marathon Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, Smith & Nephew

AGMs: British Sky Broadcasting, Pochins

Economics: Purchasing managers' index - manufacturing

How well BT Global Services fares may well determine how investors react to BT's (BT.A) results, announced 1 November. With a 6 per cent slide in underlying revenue, a contracting order book, reduced earnings and diminished cash flow through rising working capital, Global Services was the biggest disappointment in the company’s first quarter.

The prospects of significant second quarter improvement don’t look too good either. Ian Livingston, chief executive, warned during the first quarter conference call that trading conditions were deteriorating and that the IT division – which accounts for around 40 per cent of group revenue – was in for a “continued bumpy ride”. Double-digit declines were reported in Spain, and southern Europe’s macro economic environment has hardly improved since then. The UK enterprise market is being squeezed, too, underlined by KCOM’s recent warning of a slowdown in new investment.

However, Mr Livingstone has proven adept at cutting costs during his tenure at BT, and more progress here – along with continued rises in ARPU from a growing broadband base at BT Retail – would help cushion the blow of declining revenues at Global Services, which broker Morgan Stanley expects to fall 12 per cent in the six-month trading period.

Longer term, prospects look brighter. Once investment in high-speed fibre-optic access starts to reduce in 18 months’ time, cash flow should improve. Morgan Stanley forecasts imply the shares trade on an attractive earnings multiple of 10 for 2013, and ahead of the results on 1 November, we remain long-time buyers.

Friday 2 November

Trading statements: Admiral Group, Biome Technologies, Meggitt, Millenium & Copthorne, Royal Bank of Scotland

AGM: Rare Earth Minerals

Economics: Purchasing managers' index - construction

Shares going ex-dividend on 31 October

The ex-dividend date is the first day on which it is no longer possible to buy the shares and qualify for the dividend. Ex-days are almost always a Wednesday. The record date is usually two days after the ex-date. The payment day is the day on which the funds are transferred to shareholders.