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Opinion

SEVEN DAYS: 22 February 2013

SEVEN DAYS: 22 February 2013
February 22, 2013
SEVEN DAYS: 22 February 2013

Car crash

Euro sales woe

Car sales in Europe slumped to their lowest monthly level since records began in 1990 in January after an 8.5 per cent fall in sales. The worst hit marques were Ford, Peugeot Citroen and Toyota with only Opel/Vauxhall, BMW and Mercedes-Benz from the major European manufacturers experiencing growth, although Volkswagen's fall of 2.2 per cent meant it grew its market share. The poor start to the year suggests 2013 is likely to be as bleak for car manufacturers at 2012 when annual sales hit a 17-year trough.

Sterling strategy

'Carney shorts'

Hedge fund managers who have been making hay while the sun shines by shorting the Japanese yen during its recent fall are rumoured to be eyeing up sterling as their next target. In what some are dubbing the 'Carney short', short-sellers have picked up on comments from incoming Bank of England governor Mark Carney, which suggest he may adopt more expansionary monetary policies that could weaken the pound in the process. Mr Carney has said he would tolerate higher inflation if it meant a boost to growth in the UK economy. Meanwhile, sterling fell this week after the most recent minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee showed three members, including governor Sir Mervyn King, voted for more quantitative easing.

See Gilt sell-off helps shares.

Lights out

Ofgem warning

With the next generation of nuclear power plants stalled even before the planning stage, fears are growing that the UK could face an energy shortfall more quickly than even most doomsayers believe. The chief executive of Ofgem, Alastair Buchanan, this week warned consumers to expect higher energy bills in the coming years as the country will become more reliant on imported gas. Gas will fuel 60 per cent of UK generation by 2020, up from 30 per cent today. Indeed, 10 per cent of the UK's capacity will be retired next month to meet environmental targets. The government is also considering extending subsidies to new nuclear from 20 years to 30, or even 40 years in a bid to make it more appealing to potential developers.

Non-runner

Horse meat scandal

The scandal of horse meat finding its way into beef products throughout the European food chain is still spreading, with food giant Nestle this week withdrawing products from sale in three European countries after traces of horse meat were found in beef. Nestle said it was suspending sales of all beef products which originate from one German supplier. What appeared to be a localised problem concerning a small number of meat processors in the supply chain appears to be increasingly widespread and investigations are still at an early stage in many countries and jurisdictions.

German confidence

ZEW rises

European indices rose, while 10-year bunds fell following publication of February's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany. The index, which is produced by Mannheim's Centre for European Economic Research, rose for the third consecutive month and now stands at a level of 48.2 points - substantially in advance of the consensus forecast of 35. Though Germany's GDP slackened towards the end of last year, the ZEW Indicator reflects the view that economic activity in Europe's largest economy should accelerate through the remainder of the first half of 2013. A view has also taken hold that Germany is no longer as exposed to a fallout from Europe's debt crisis, although this could be characterised as a triumph of hope over experience.

For sale

Countrywide float

The UK's largest estate agency, Countrywide, has announced its intention to float on the main list of the London Stock Exchange in the coming week, with a view to raising £200m from investors. Following on from the recent successful float of housebuilder Crest Nicholson, this represents another opportunity for investors to get exposure to the UK's housing market. Countrywide also announced results for 2012 alongside its intention to float, which showed a 6 per cent rise in revenues to £539.8m and a 12 per cent improvement in earnings to £63m.

See Crest Nicholson is back.