The US is the busiest area for economic news. Tuesday sees the release of a series of manufacturing and consumer-related numbers that offer a picture of the underlying economy. For example, the Markit US purchasing manager index (PMI) is expected to register a slowdown in expansion of orders, confirming the initial PMI assessment for September, in a pattern that has shown up a consistently weaker summer period for many US manufacturers. However, to put that in context, it should still show that orders are expanding at above the critical 50 point mark, but not as fast as in the spring.
The contrast with UK manufacturing PMI figures for September, which are out as well on Tuesday, might be quite marked after the strongest August PMI figures for some time - these indicated that orders are expanding at their fastest rate in the UK since the 1993 recovery. Germany is another important manufacturing country with PMI figures out on the same day. These should show a continued expansion after a series of indicators earlier in the autumn showed manufacturing confidence returning as China shows a renewed appetite for German imports. Meanwhile, total US vehicle sales come out the same day with figures expected to show that consumers are still buying cars, with consensus forecasts for total vehicle sales predicting a modest expansion to 12.47m cars.
Friday sees the critical US non-farm payroll estimates for September which the markets will be watching for any sign that the relatively disappointing figures for August were just a seasonal blip. Forecasters expect an extra 175,000 jobs to be added to the payroll. That is the minimum the US economy has to produce in order to keep jobless figures flat; the headline jobless numbers are also out on the same day and should show the jobless rate flatlining at 7.3 per cent. In the UK, expect figures for new car registrations to be released on Friday. New car sales are currently running at a high compared with the rest of Europe, with prior figures showing nearly 11 per cent growth.
Chris Dillow is currently away on annual leave.
