What we should have calculated, however, was that because the US economic recovery remains somewhat fragile and investors rather hair-triggered, the chances of Mr Bernanke being brave enough to kick off tapering were always slim. And with his career at the helm of the US central bank drawing to a close, why spoil an illustrious reputation by dropping the bomb that stopped the global recovery dead in its tracks?
So perhaps we could have spotted earlier what Mr Bernanke's talk on QE tapering really was - a tentative toe in the tub to see if it was cool enough to jump in. After all, the plan was merely to shave $20bn from the $85bn it's buying each month, small change down the back of the sofa of the $16 trillion US economy and the $2 trillion of government bonds already bought under QE.
It was scalding, of course, and the severity of the sell-off in May seems to confirm what many have long suspected about QE - that no matter how slowly bond buying programmes are tapered there will be major market upheaval in one form or another as the enormous balance sheet is unwound because, along with global financial markets, the US economy has become dependent on it.
That's one reason why I don't share the euphoric reaction to the postponement of tapering - because it is medicine we will have to take at some point, and the longer it is postponed the more painful the ultimate cure will be. QE was necessary in 2008 to prevent outright depression, but it was always supposed to be temporary for one very good reason: the long-term side effects could be unpleasant.
Another is that investors are not celebrating the strength of economic recovery, but the fact that it is not strong enough to stem the tide of cheap money, which will continue to distort asset prices. Indeed, the S&P hit record levels last week, despite the fact that earnings growth has stalled since 2012 - which means the S&P is now trading on a cyclically adjusted PE ratio of 24, well above its long-term average of 16.5.
In isolation, of course, the Cape ratio has its limitations - but as an indicative measure of froth it's still a useful yardstick. And as someone who still believes valuations matter, it's too hot for me.
