Many economists think that this week's figures, which showed zero CPI inflation in the 12 months to March, represent the low point for inflation. Fabrice Montagne at Barclays expects the rate to rise from now on, ending the year at around 0.8 per cent.
One reason for this is that last autumn's fall in petrol prices will drop out of the annual inflation rate later this year. So, too, will recent falls in food prices unless the supermarkets' price wars intensify. But there are also more fundamental reasons to expect an increase. In the past few weeks, sterling has fallen slightly, petrol prices have risen and inflation in the euro area has turned less negative. Partly reflecting these factors, the prices of manufactured goods have risen in the past two months, following six months of cuts. "The lack of inflation is likely to be temporary," says Chris Williamson at Markit.