Chris Dillow

A low ratio of the money stock to share prices in western economies points to poor future returns on emerging markets shares

There's a large genetic component to successful investing

The fortunes of the US and eurozone economies are diverging sharply, next week's numbers could tell us

Inflation no longer matters very much. This represents huge progress.

Our no-thought momentum and defensive portfolios have continued to do well

The UK and eurozone economies are both struggling, next week's numbers could show

The idea that shares outperform bonds by a lot over the long term hasn't been true for years, and might not be true in the future

UK exporters have not taken advantage of the cheap pound and good growth in overseas demand.

In the long-run, productivity growth determines interest rates and returns on financial assets. Which is why investors should hope it recovers.

Next week's numbers could show that the threat of a trade war is hurting manufacturers – but this is not the only problem we have

The average rental yield on housing is now low relative to yields on shares. In the past, this has pointed to house prices falling

So far, falling unemployment has not raised wage growth. If this continues, it would be good news for shares

Higher US tariffs might reduce the US trade deficit, but only insofar as they depress economic growth