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Ladbrokes Coral faces regulatory uncertainty

Betting levels could be reduced following a government review
March 28, 2017

The table below tells us little about Ladbrokes Coral. The figures for 2016 were made up of 10 months from Ladbrokes and two months for the merged Ladbrokes Coral (LCL) group, while the numbers for 2015 were for Ladbrokes only.

IC TIP: Hold at 133p

However, the merged group reckons that pro-forma revenue - assuming the operations were intertwined throughout - grew by 11 per cent in the reported period. The growth was led by the digital and European retail segments. Overall, pro-forma operating profits were up by 22 per cent. Cost synergies have also been revised up from £65m to £100m, while the statutory loss can be attributed to merger-related costs and impairments.

Since the merger on 1 November last year, the focus has been on integrating into one unified IT system and to roll out a significantly enhanced electronic point-of-sale system throughout its betting shops.

There are a number of potential rain clouds on the horizon. In the spring, the government's triennial review should report its findings on fixed-odds betting terminals, which could place a limit on the amount that can be gambled. The government has also indicated that it will be pursuing a horseracing levy of 10 per cent on all betting channels from April this year.

The popularity of horse and greyhound racing is declining for the core UK retail estate, but this was offset by a 12 per cent increase in football stakes, driven by the European football championship, and the introduction of self-service betting terminals. Outside the UK trading was very strong, with the digital business - including Ladbrokes.com, Ladbrokes Australia and the Eurobet brands - growing both customer numbers and revenue. Sporting fortunes tend to fluctuate, with football revenue boosted by a raft of unpredictable results, but a string of favourites winning at the horse races was particularly painful.

Analysts at Investec are forecasting normalised pre-tax profits for 2017 of £279m and EPS of 12.5p (up from £253m and 11.3p in 2016).

LADBROKES CORAL (LCL)
ORD PRICE:132.7pMARKET VALUE:£2.54bn
TOUCH:132.6-132.7p12-MONTH HIGH:165pLOW: 106p
DIVIDEND YIELD:2.3%PE RATIO:NA
NET ASSET VALUE:75p*NET DEBT:76%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20121.0820021.08.9
20131.1268.07.38.9
20141.1738.04.48.9
20151.20-46.50.23.0
20161.51-213-17.53.0
% change+26---

Ex-div: 6 Apr

Payment: 18 May

*Including intangible assets of £2.66bn, or 139p a share