With other major central banks poised to cut rates, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has managed to catch the very end of this tightening cycle. The BoJ increased interest rates from -0.1 per cent to a range of 0-0.1 per cent last month, a move heralded as a return to more ‘normal’ policy conditions. Yet interest rates won’t come close to the peaks seen in other developed markets: with inflationary pressure still weak, economists are split on whether the BoJ will hold rates for the duration of 2024, or hike them to a very modest 0.25 per cent by the end of the year.
Across the pond, preliminary first-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures will be released on Thursday. After the March meeting, the Fed increased its projections for 2024 real GDP growth from 1.4 to 2.1 per cent but simultaneously bumped up forecasts for core inflation. Markets could face more rate-cut disappointment next week: after all, a roaring economy is rarely a symptom of overly restrictive interest rates. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects the US economy to grow by 2.1 per cent over the course of 2024, against 0.7 per cent in the UK and 0.6 per cent in the euro area.
Monday 22 April
China: 1 year loan prime rate
Euro area: Consumer confidence index
UK: Rightmove HPI
US: Chicago Fed Index
Tuesday 23 April
Euro area: Composite, manufacturing and services PMIs
Japan: Real wages, manufacturing PMI
UK: Public finances, composite, manufacturing and services PMIs
US: Building permits, composite, manufacturing and services PMIs, new home sales, Richmond Fed Index
Wednesday 24 April
US: Durable goods orders
Thursday 25 April
US: Q1 GDP first estimate, wholesale inventories, pending home sales, Kansas City Fed Index
Friday 26 April
Euro area: M3 money supply
Japan: Trade balance, BoJ interest rate decision
UK: GfK consumer confidence
US: PCE inflation, Michigan Sentiment
