Rate-setters are in data-dependent mode, and some influential figures are coming their way next week. On Wednesday US consumer price index (CPI) inflation figures will be released, followed by European data on Friday. Euro area inflation surprised last month, with the headline rate dropping to just 2.4 per cent.
Although the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates on hold in April, President Christine Lagarde hinted at June rate cuts, telling a press conference that “interest rates are at levels that are making a substantial contribution” to bringing down inflation. Another encouraging reading on Friday could seal the deal.
The situation in the US is more complicated. In March, the headline annual rate of US CPI reaccelerated to 3.5 per cent, up from 3.2 per cent in February. ‘Supercore’ inflation, which measures core services excluding housing, hit 4.8 per cent. After the release, traders pushed back their expectations for a first rate cut to September, pricing in only two quarter-point cuts over the course of 2024 – back in January, they anticipated six. Updated CPI inflation figures will be released on Wednesday.
Monday 13 May
Japan: M2 money supply, liquidity
Tuesday 14 May
China: FDI
Japan: PPI inflation
UK: Unemployment, average weekly earnings
US: NFIB small business index, PPI inflation
Wednesday 15 May
Euro area: Q1 GDP (final estimate), industrial production
US: Inflation, core inflation, hourly earnings, average workweek, Empire State Index, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB HPI
Thursday 16 May
Japan: Q1 GDP (first estimate), industrial production, retail sales
US: Building permits, export and import price index, housing completions, Philadelphia Fed Index, capacity utilisation, industrial production, manufacturing production
Friday 17 May
China: Industrial output, retail sales
Euro area: Inflation
US: Leading indicators
