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Syrian misery strikes Gulfsands

RESULTS: Problems continue to mount in Syria for Gulfsands Petroleum – leaving few reasons to hold the shares
April 3, 2012

These figures were distorted by the fall-out from EU Sanctions against Syria – in December Gulfsands declared force majeure, effectively forcing it to stand back from its principal asset, Block 26 PSC in Syria. Accordingly, reported revenue doesn't consolidate Syrian operations and, under international rules, the Syrian assets are accounted for as an investment. Given such uncertainty, the shares look best avoided.

IC TIP: Sell at 154p

Gulfsands is trying to secure its legal rights over the Syrian assets, while evaluating several cash-generative, non-Syrian opportunities. Operationally, though, the Syrian operation isn't in bad shape. Although working interest production shrank 17 per cent to 8,542 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boepd) in the period, gross production from the Khurbet East and Yousefieh fields had, by August, already exceeded the year-end target of 24,000 boepd. On that basis, working interest production would have outstripped 2010's rate – if production hadn't been suspended. In fact, even the curtailed ramp up at Block 26 PSC still generated 34 per cent more operational cash flow than last year, while net profits rose 23 per cent to $55.1m (£34.4m). Underlying proven and probable reserves also rose 40 per cent to 76.3m barrels of oil equivalent.

GULFSANDS PETROLEUM (GPX)
ORD PRICE:154pMARKET VALUE:£181m
TOUCH:153-156p12-MONTH HIGH:320pLOW: 124p
DIVIDEND YIELD:nilPE RATIO:na
NET ASSET VALUE:194¢NET CASH:$124m

Year to 31 DecTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
200737.01.40-1.10nil
200854.0-11.6-8.40nil
200984.028.323.7nil
2010*16.6-37.2-30.7nil
2011*7.91-52.4-43.3nil
% change-52

*Does not reflect Syrian production

£1=$1.60