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TUI rides UK recovery in package holidays

RESULT: Losses at TUI Travel (TT.) were more modest than the market expected as analysts look forward to a stronger second half.
May 14, 2014

The number of Brits abroad is on the rise, reckons holiday operator TUI Travel (TT.). Growing demand from holidaymakers has allowed the group - which has already sold 60 per cent of its summer 2014 season - to push UK prices up by 5 per cent.

IC TIP: Buy at 435p

The story was different in continental Europe: increasing competition in the Nordic regions drove bookings down 7 per cent in spite of flat prices. As a result, summer capacity has been cut by 3 per cent. Similarly, bookings in Germany were flat and prices were only raised by 1 per cent. The number of bookings from French customers also fell as political unrest continued to hurt Egypt's popularity as a French tourist hot-spot. Chief executive Peter Long insisted the French business will still break-even, but not until 2016 - a year later than originally thought.

The company is still happy with broker estimates for 7 to 10 per cent growth in underlying operating profit this year. Losses at the half-year stage are to be expected, as the bulk of TUI's profits are made from summer holidays. And while underlying operating losses of £298m appear to have widened, adjust for the timing of Easter - which slipped into the second half - and underlying losses actually narrowed by 4 per cent.

Broker Numis Securities expects pre-tax profits of £534m for the full year, giving EPS of 33.8p, up from £473m and 30.8p in 2013.

TUI TRAVEL (TT.)

ORD PRICE:435pMARKET VALUE:£4.86bn
TOUCH:435-436p12-MONTH HIGH:451pLOW: 329p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.2%PE RATIO:91
NET ASSET VALUE: 85p*NET CASH:60%

Half-year to 31 MarTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20135.40-410-24.03.75
20145.19-386-24.64.05
% change-4--+8

Ex-div: 3 Sep

Payment: 3 Oct

*Includes intangible assets of £4.39bn, or 392p a share