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UBM better than expected

RESULT: Emerging market growth compensates for weak UK and Japan markets
March 8, 2010

United Business Media (UBM) continues to shift its focus away from publishing towards higher-margin events work. Last year the events arm generated one third of group sales and more than half its profits as UBM sold nearly 1m square metres of advertising space and welcomed 1.25m visitors to more than 300 shows.

IC TIP: Hold at 499p

UBM has achieved good growth in markets such as India and China but suffered in mature markets such as the UK and Japan. The data, services and online arm did well with better margins driven by cost savings and currency benefits. But print was weak, here UBM closed 31 titles as profits collapsed by nearly two thirds to £8.9m. An exceptional charge of £16.5m is largely down to the print arm and UBM will not rule out further closures among its remaining 109 publications.

The targeting and distribution business did well to slightly increase profits against a backdrop of reduced corporate activity and reduced marketing spend.

UNITED BUSINESS MEDIA (UBM)

ORD PRICE:499pMARKET VALUE:£1,217m
TOUCH:497-49912-MONTH HIGH:518pLOW: 365p
DIVIDEND YIELD:5%PE RATIO:16
NET ASSET VALUE:154p*NET DEBT:59%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
200563422666.115.8
200673911443.218.0
200780213040.321.3
200888710231.523.8
2009848-3630.924.2
% change---+2

Ex-div:14 Apr

Payment:20 May

*Includes intangible assets of £932m, or 381p a share

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More analysis of company results

Over the last five years UBM has spent more than £400m buying 66 companies and has just added the Sign China Roadshow to its portfolio for $10.7m. Numis predicts pre-tax profits of £130m and EPS of 42.5p.