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Autonomy cashing in, or caught out?

TIPS UPDATE: UK software bellwether’s record half year fails to match markets heady expectations
July 23, 2010

First-half results from Autonomy are a lesson in expectation management, with record revenues and profits still sparking an 11 per cent share price slump, to 1,602p, and taking the decline to 20 per cent in the last month alone.

IC TIP: Hold at 1602p

Such a reaction may seem odd given the 'gentle recovery' the company sees, with 'Power' and OEM markets in particularly good nick. Revenues rose 28 per cent to a record $415m (£272m), including 14 per cent organic growth and pre-tax profit of $182m was also a record thanks to average selling prices for its meaning based technologies rising from $722,000 to $876,000 year-on-year.

However, the 7 per cent rise in second quarter adjusted EPS to 28 cents was lower than analysts had expected, largely because of the $766m-worth of interest-bearing loan notes issued in March, and Panmure Gordon has trimmed EPS estimates 5 per cent to 119.4¢ for the full year. Still, that represents over 30 per cent EPS growth year on year.

Perhaps the most vital piece of progress is on the cash front, a big worry in the past. Debtors days fell to 82 from 88 at the end of December, while cash flow from operations rose 64 per cent to $191m.

AUTONOMY (AU.)

ORD PRICE:1,602pMARKET VALUE:£3.9bn
TOUCH:1,602-1,605p12-MONTH HIGH:2,012pLOW:1,161p
DIVIDEND YIELD:naPE RATIO:28
NET ASSET VALUE:792¢*NET CASH:$162m

Half-year to 30 JunTurnover ($m)Pre-tax profit ($m)Earnings per share (¢)Dividend per share (¢)
200932512136.0nil
201041513642.0nil
% change+28+12+17-

*Includes intangibles assets of $176bn, or 730¢ per share £1=$1.53

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