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ALTERIAN (ALN)

Alterian's shares jump 6 per cent after months of decline, but doubts remain over the fourth quarter
November 11, 2011

Alterian 's shares made a modest recovery as the company reported that revenue growth in the third quarter was in line with management expectations. The marketing software provider's shares have fallen by more than a third since April's 189p high on fears of a slowdown in the US, where the company makes over half its sales. Management is at a time when investors fear marketing budgets could be slashed.

IC TIP: Hold

Third-quarter sales growth increased to 48 per cent year on year (54 per cent in constant currencies), with revenue doubling in North America. A "major data sales organisation" in the US has adopted Alterian's list-management products and more marketing agencies have signed up as distribution partners.

Stockbroker Investec says the fourth quarter requires a "significant amount of new business to be signed" to meet sales targets, but a "solid pipeline" left its EPS forecasts unchanged at 10.1p for 2008 and 17.4p in 2009. At 122p, the share price is well down on our buy tip () yet its short-term outlook hangs on the company making its fourth-quarter sales targets. As it relies heavily on re-sellers, that's hardly re-assuring and the shares are fairly priced.