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Weather knocks NWF

Mild weather is bad good news for NWF, so forecasts have been downgraded
January 31, 2012

Shares in NWF slumped 10 per cent close to a 12-month low after the company warned that it would miss full-year earnings estimates.

IC TIP: Hold at 115.5p

The profit shortfall is a direct result of the prolonged period of mild weather that led to a long grazing period up until the end of November and reduced demand for feedstuffs to such an extent that profits dropped a hefty 60 per cent to £600,000. It also cut demand for fuel oil – particularly heating oil – which accounts for a quarter of NWF's fuel sales. That said, fuel sales were up thanks to higher crude oil prices and acquisitions, but margins of only 1p a litre meant the business only managed to breakeven on sales of £181m, up from £133m at this stage last year. Even if you strip out £0.3m of acquisition and integration costs, profitability at the unit was still way short of the £0.7m operating profit reported in the prior half year.

To make matters worse, the warm weather has continued over Christmas and into January, so profits – which are heavily biased to the second half – will be "significantly below the board's expectations". This prompted broker Peel Hunt to slash its full-year adjusted pre-tax profit estimate from £6.9m to only £5m and cut EPS forecasts from 10.5p to 7.6p.

NWF (NWF)

ORD PRICE:115.5pMARKET VALUE:£54.5m
TOUCH:112-119p12-MONTH HIGH:149.5pLOW: 108p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.9%PE RATIO:10
NET ASSET VALUE: 54p*NET DEBT:114%

Half-year to 30 NovTurnover (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20102032.23.21
20112641.82.81
% change+30-18-13-

Ex-div: 21 March

Payment: 1 May

*Includes intangible assets of £11.7m, or 25p a share